Month: March 2020

Poly Real Estate (600048) Quarterly Report Review: Continuously Released Performance and Financial Stability

Poly Real Estate (600048) Quarterly Report Review: Continuously Released Performance and Financial Stability

Matters: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved operating income of 1118 in the first three quarters.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

8%, net profit 128.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 34.

1% to achieve EPS1.

08 yuan, in line with expectations.

Ping An’s view: excellent performance and abundant advance receipts: the company’s merger realized operating income of 1118.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 128.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 34.


The main reasons why the 武汉夜网论坛 growth rate of net profit attributable to motherhood is higher than the growth rate of revenue: 1) The gross profit margin increased due to the impact of settlement products and regional structure.

2 excellent to 35.

9); 2) The proportion of interest in the carry-over project increased, and the proportion of minority shareholders’ profits and losses decreased by 2 to 26.

9%; 3) Increase in fair value gains by USD 500 million.

Initially completed area of 17.23 million square meters, an annual increase of 46.

9% completed 62 of the long-term plan.


As the sales amount far exceeded the settlement income, the advance payment at the end of the period increased by 27 compared with the beginning of the period.

7% to 3829.

30,000 yuan, the basis for subsequent performance growth.

Sales continued to grow, and the completion of the new start plan was higher: the company achieved 2,293 sales areas in the first three quarters of 2019.

80,000 square meters, an increase of 13 in ten years.

3%; realized sales amount of 3467.

7 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

2%, the market share increased by 0 compared with 2018.

4 up to 3.


The sales volume of the first and second tiers accounted for 75%; the average sales price was 15,118 yuan / square meter, an increase of 3 from 2018.


Initially achieved a new construction area of 36.75 million square meters, an annual increase of 11.

5%, 81 of which has completed the long-term plan.

7%; area under construction at the end of the period1.

200 million square meters, an increase of 42 in ten years.


The higher-end growth rate under construction provides a large number of sources of saleable goods for the follow-up, and the basis for continuous sales growth.

The pace of land acquisition is steadily decreasing, and the property splitting and listing is imminent: a series of 84 new expansion projects of the company, an additional construction area of 14.93 million square meters, and a total land price of 99.6 billion yuan, which has gradually decreased by 39.

2%, 39.1%, which is 65 of the sales area (amount) in the same period.

1%, 28.

7%, a decrease of 47 from 2018.

6, 18.

9 averages.

The average floor price is 6,671 yuan / square meter, which increased by 7 in the previous year.

8%, 44 for the average sales price over the same period.

1%, an increase of 1 from 2018.

9 units.

The company’s focus on the region is still focused on core first-tier and second-tier cities, and the corresponding regional expansion amounted to 76%.

There are 666 planned projects under construction at the end of the period, with a total construction area of 2.

500 million square meters, which is the basis for the company’s continuous and rapid development.

The preliminary spin-off and listing of Poly Real Estate has been progressing steadily. In September, it has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission; 14 new shopping malls, hotel and apartment projects have been developed for business management, and the brand and management output are continuously promoted in an asset-light model.

The debt structure is reasonable, and there is no pressure on short-term debt repayment: the company’s net debt ratio at the end of the period, and the asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts respectively increased earlier.

7, down 2.

2 up to 82.

3%, 40.

4%, lower than the industry average.

The company grabbed sales receipts. In the first three quarters, it achieved a sales return of 3,098 trillion, with a return rate of 89.

3%, an increase of 3 per year.

6 units.

Cash in hand 1125.

7 trillion, which is 223 of long-term and short-term debt due within one year.

5%, short-term debt repayment pressure.

Investment suggestion: Maintain the budget forecast, and gradually the company has stock incentive exercise. Based on the latest equity calculation, it is estimated that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 2 respectively.

05 yuan, 2.

50 yuan, 3.

00 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 7 respectively.

6 times, 6.

2 times, 5.

2 times.

The company’s incentive system has been continuously improved, performance sales have continued to increase rapidly, and the property sector has been divided into listed companies to improve their forecasts and maintain the “strong recommendation” level.

Risk reminders: 1) The current overall property market has cooled down, and the third and fourth tiers are subject to sufficient supply and shrinking demand. There is no obvious adjustment. It is expected that the subsequent volume and price will face pressure. In the future, the third or fourth tier property market may exceed expectations.The adjustment caused sales pressure and brought about the risk of impairment of some of the company’s third- and fourth-tier projects; 2) Land prices continued to rise since 2016 due to the hot property market, and subsequent price limit policies in cities were successively introduced, and the company’s gross profit margin was at risk in the future;Recently, the industry’s capital has been shrinking and tightening, while the property market sales have increased slightly. If the property market cools down more than expected during the subsequent return to the stable market, the company faces tight financing channels and upward financing costs.

Hangzhou Oxygen (002430) Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Exceeds Expectations Downward Companies Still Focus on Industrial Pipeline Gas Business

Hangzhou Oxygen (002430) Third Quarterly Report Review: Revenue Exceeds Expectations Downward Companies Still Focus on Industrial Pipeline Gas Business

The event company released a report for the third quarter of 2019 and achieved operating income of 59 in the third quarter of 2019.

87 ‰, increasing by 0 every year.

32%; realized gross profit of 12.

570,000 yuan, an increase of -8 in ten years.

91%; realized net profit attributable to parent company5.

32 ppm, a ten-year increase of -1.


  Opinions The company’s revenue exceeded the growth rate faster than expected, and it achieved a combined operating income of 59 in 1919.

870,000 yuan, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.


Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

32 ppm, an increase of -1 over the same period last year.


The company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 21.

00%, with 23, 2018.

The 28% ratio is significantly lower, but higher than the medium-term gross profit margin of 20.

69%, gross margin has been repaired.

  On July 9, 2019, the company achieved total operating income of 19.

13 ppm, a ten-year increase of -16.

52%; gross profit 4.

1.4 billion, a year -21.

The 14% increase is in line with the mid-term gross profit growth of -6.

21%, the growth rate dropped by 14.

93 samples; net profit attributable to mother 1.

33 ppm, a ten-year increase of -36.


The benchmark for the third quarter was in the second quarter. The ten-year growth rate of the company’s operating income and gross profit has been turned from positive to negative.

The trend of income and profit exceeding the growth rate has become negative, and it is 深圳桑拿网 expected that budget revenue and profit exceeding the growth rate may be negative.

  The company is still the country’s most potential leader in gas localization. The industrial gas business is the company’s main growth point in the next few years. The company is the only domestic company with large and ultra-large high-end air separation device R & D capabilities.The layout of the industrial gas industry has entered the harvest period. The investment rhythm of gas business and the cash flow of existing projects have achieved a virtuous circle. In the future, the company is expected to become a leader in domestic industrial gas domestication.

The company achieved a breakthrough in the field supply of bulk gas for the electronics industry in 2019, and the industrial gas business is the company’s main growth point in the next few years.

  Earnings forecast We adjusted our earnings forecast and expect the company to achieve operating income of 79-2019.

74, 91.

34 and 103.

8.9 billion, net profit attributable to parent company6.

68, 7.

65 and 9.

12 trillion, total share capital 9.

6.5 billion shares, corresponding to EPS 0.69, 0.

79 and 0.

95 yuan.

On October 24, 2019, observe 13.

04 yuan, corresponding to a market value of 126 million, 2019-1921 PE is about 19, 16 and 14 times, the latest PB is 2.

27 times.

Considering the growth prospects of the company ‘s gas industry, we still maintain the company ‘s “overweight” rating. Risk reminder: The domestic heavy industry operating rate is lower than expected, the gas project layout and the volume of rare gas products exceed expectations, and the retail price of industrial gas fluctuates significantly.

Yunda Co. (002120) in-depth review: exploring the fast-growing password of Yunda

Yunda Co. (002120) in-depth review: exploring the fast-growing password of Yunda
Foreword: As a rising star in Tongda Department, since its official landing in the capital market in early 17th, the company’s sustained and steady growth performance has consistently exceeded investors’ expectations. The company has now grown into a new leader in e-commerce express delivery with a market value of over 70 billion.A research team that has been closely following the company, we are trying to explore the company’s rapidly growing passwords through this report. The company’s market value growth is mainly driven by performance.At present, Yunda has a market value of more than 70 billion yuan, ranking first among the e-commerce express (except SF Express), second only to Zhongtong Express (listed on the US stock market with a market value of nearly 110 billion yuan). It is calculated based on the company’s backdoor estimate of 17.8 billion. 15The compound growth rate of the company’s market value in -18 was 42% (the company’s market value in 18 years was calculated at the end of the year), while the compound growth rate of the company’s revenue and net profit after deduction for the same period were 40% and 45% respectively, and the company’s performance increased rapidlyDrive the company’s market value to new highs. Behind the company’s rapid development is the superior strategy and tactics.1) Strategic layout: The company is deeply cultivating the e-commerce express delivery market and continues to focus on the main business of express delivery to fully benefit from the development of e-commerce 天津夜网 dividends. At the same time, core infrastructure resources are continuously invested to create a “express giant on the wheel of science and technology.”2) Tactical framework: The company’s senior management team is stable, and the network’s refined management capabilities are enhanced, especially in the transfer (continuous optimization of the layout + automated solution, the leading operation cost of the transfer industry), and the outlets (refined network granularity, high enthusiasm of franchisees), Main line transportation (first drive straight, innovative quotation mode, continuous improvement of transportation costs) and other times.Clear strategic positioning and good implementation at the tactical level, leading the company in terms of company efficiency and service. The company’s performance is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.1) On the income side, we believe that the impact of the price war on the company’s income side should not be too wide, and the downward trend of the company’s single ticket revenue is generally controllable; 2) On the cost side, the company’s proportion of transportation costs can be improved in the future.By increasing the proportion of own-owned vehicles and drop trailers, transportation costs are further reduced; considering that the company’s continuous replacement at transit points and the time it takes for peers to catch up, Yunda’s advantage in transit will remain.We believe that the company’s performance has maintained steady growth under the circumstances that the unit price drop is under control and the single ticket cost has at least room for improvement. Investment suggestion: The company has been cultivating the express delivery industry for 20 years, with a clear strategic positioning, strategic execution of precise and refined management capabilities expansion, transformation of the company’s continuous investment in infrastructure resources, cost reduction and improvement space, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.Benefiting from the e-commerce development dividend, we estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021 will be 28.3, 34.1, 42.0 ‰, corresponding to the current PE of 25, 21, and 17 times, maintaining the “Buy-A” level. Risk reminders: 1) Downside risks of industry demand; price competition exceeds market expectations; risks of rising costs.

Great Wall Motor (601633): Sales stand out on a seasonal basis

Great Wall Motor (601633): Sales stand out on a seasonal basis
Event: The company announced March sales data, which increased by 17% that month, and Q1 gradually increased by 11%. In the first quarter, the overall automotive market remained sluggish, and it continued to increase its share against the trend! Sales of the Haval brand increased by 18% in March and increased by 14% in the first quarter. Although the weight model H6 has improved, the new star model F7 has quickly followed up and is expected to continue to break into a new generation of magic cars. The WEY brand is temporarily 深圳桑拿网 under pressure, and it is expected to break through in the future.Although the mid- to high-end Weipai brand Q1 is in a horizontal state as a whole, the average monthly sales of about 10,000 units means that WEY’s reputation in the price range of 150,000-200,000 has gradually begun to build and it is expected to continue to break through in the future. Pickup Q1 overall growth of 15% continued to provide stable growth.In the context of the lifting of pickup trucks across the country, pickup truck sales are expected to continue to rise, and as a leader in the pickup truck industry, Great Wall will clearly benefit in both volume and price. New energy Euler is expected to be the biggest bright spot in Q1 sales.Euler R1 and IQ combined sales in the first quarter.40,000 units, so Great Wall also has best-selling models in new energy vehicles.After our outstanding annual bonus 杭州桑拿 declines, it will be the Great Wall, GAC, Geely and other traditional giants. When Great Wall Motor new energy vehicle sales continue to bring surprises in the future! Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19/20 years will be 60.31 ppm / 67.US $ 3.8 billion, currently expected to correspond to a 14x / 12x dynamic assessment in 19/20.Although the overall sales of the automotive industry are still sluggish, the company’s Q1 sales remain strong, and the overall industry demand will gradually change in the second half of the year. Great Wall will become one of the independent brand leaders and will continue to make strategic recommendations and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Passenger car sales fall short of expectations, price cuts are larger than expected

Nanjing Securities (601990) Annual Report and First Quarterly Report Commentary: Self-operated significant pull Q1 net profit increased by 91%

Nanjing Securities (601990) Annual Report and First Quarterly Report Commentary: Self-operated significant pull Q1 net profit increased by 91%

Event: In 2018, Nanjing Securities achieved revenue12.

34 ‰, at least -11.

13%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

32 trillion, one year -43.

55%; EPS is 0.

09 yuan.

As of the end of 18, the company’s total assets were 247.

75 trillion, +5 for ten years.

42%; net assets 105.

930,000 yuan, +13 for ten years.


Capital leveraged financing 46.


Recommended average ROE2.

32%, a decrease of 2 per year.

10 averages.

A cash dividend of RMB 1 is distributed for every 10 shares.

00 yuan (including tax), the total distribution of cash is about 2.

7.5 billion (including tax); 2 shares for every 10 shares, a total increase of 5.

5 billion shares.

In the first quarter of 2019, Nanjing Securities achieved revenue5.

07 million yuan, +53 a year.

84%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

11 trillion, ten years +91.

13%; EPS is 0.

08 yuan a year + 100%.

Total assets 314.

810,000 yuan, +27 from the end of last year.

07%, net assets 108.

2.1 billion, +2 from the end of the previous year.


ROE is 1.

97%, an increase of 0 from the end of the previous year.

80 units.

Brokerage, self-employment, and integration of both forces, the traditional business has grown rapidly.

In the first quarter of 2019, the revenue of brokerage, self-employment and Liangrong were 1 respectively.

3.7 billion, 1.

5.7 billion, 1.66 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

25%, 201.

92%, 55.

14%, the three businesses together contributed over 90% of revenue.

Investment bank operating budgets, revenues decline every year.

The company’s investment banking business revenue in the first quarter was zero.

3.4 billion, down 29 every year.


With the improvement of the market environment and the company’s development of the science and technology board business, the investment bank’s 北京男士会所 business income in the second half of the year increased.

Investment suggestion: After the initial public offering, the company’s capital strength will increase, and business transformation will accelerate. Benefiting from the recovery of the securities market, the reform plan for business line transformation is expected to appear further.

The company deeply cultivates the Jiangsu and Ningxia markets. The actual controller is Nanjing State-owned Assets Group, which has expanded capital strength and outstanding resource advantages.

The company is currently evaluating PB2.

90 times, reflecting the properties of the new shares.

Risk reminders: the activity of equity reform investment declines; market risks; capital market reforms fail to meet expectations; business transformation fails to meet expectations; and the quality of listed companies on the science and technology board does not meet expectations.

Government Procurement Helps Chip Industry Rise, Institutions Bullish on 7 Potential Stocks

Government Procurement Helps Chip Industry Rise, Institutions Bullish on 7 Potential Stocks

A few days ago, the Central Government Procurement Network released the “2018-2019 Central State Organs’ Information Product (Hardware) and Air Conditioning Product Agreement Supply and Procurement Project Procurement Announcement”, which revealed that this year’s server product procurement category added a “domestic chip””Server” is a new sub-category that includes Godson CPU servers, Feiteng CPU servers, and Sunway CPU servers.

  Yesterday, some chip leaders reversed the growth of the stock market. Among them, Runxin Technology and Haite High-tech front-end rushed to the daily limit. Influenced by the accelerated decline of the stock index in the end, they eventually increased.

42% and 5.

26%, in addition, national technology (3.

14%), Shengbang shares (2.

66%), Beijing Junzheng (2.

25%), Bichuang Technology (1.

97%), Zhenxin Technology (1.

90%), the inferior margin (1.

75%) and Northern Huachuang (1.

06%) and other stocks also rose the most.

  Ongoing, analysts said that as a whole, these chip industries are still in the early stages of development, and chip self-sufficiency in key areas has decreased.

Regardless of whether it is autonomously controllable or from the huge market demand space upstream, the need to accelerate the development of the internal integrated circuit industry is very urgent, and the internally-developed chip penetration rate needs to be increased. Related leading listed companies will also welcome new developmentOpportunity.

  In fact, the development of the chip industry has been highly valued.

In terms of policy, the state has successively issued encouraging documents such as the Outline for the Promotion of the Development of the National Integrated Circuit Industry, and the Notice on the Issues Concerning Enterprise Income Policies of Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Enterprises.

In addition, following 2014, the registered capital was 987.

After the operation of the first national integrated circuit industry investment fund at 2 ppm, it is reported that the second phase of the national integrated circuit industry investment fund plan has been submitted to the State Council and approved, and the scale of the second phase will exceed 150 billion yuan.

  The Securities Daily Market Research Center found that according to the flush flush statistics, in the first quarter of this year, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund actively bought the stocks of listed companies and was selected among the top ten shareholders or top ten shareholders of tradable shares of 11 companies.

Based on the closing prices of individual stocks at the end of the first quarter of this year, 11 companies 返回码: 404 网站打不开?重查 ‘national integrated circuit industry investment funds have gradually bought up to about 30 billion yuan, which is 297.

8.1 billion yuan.

Among them, Sanan Optoelectronics purchased 107.

5.3 billion yuan, ranking first, Zhaoyi Innovation (43.

8.8 billion yuan), Changdian Technology (28.

2.2 billion), Huiding Technology (27.

7.7 billion) and Tongfu Microelectronics (22.

45 ppm) and other 4 companies, the fund’s purchase revenue is also above 20 ppm, and the remaining 6 companies are: Beidouxingtong, Northern China Chuang, National Science and Technology, Nasda, Jingfang Technology and Changchuan Technology.
  Regarding the development status and future development trends of these chip industries, Huatai Securities said that benefiting from the global chip capacity transfer to China and national strategic support, the speeding up of China’s wafer fab construction can benefit semiconductor equipment.

It is expected that China’s semiconductor equipment market will grow by 50% in 2018, and its global share may reach 19%.

  On the layout of individual stocks, Chuancai Securities stated that it is recommended to focus on leading industry segments with core competitiveness and high certainty of the benefit logic. The relevant targets are: Changdian Technology (the third largest in the world in the field of packaging), and Zhaoyi Innovation (NORFlash + MCU + Coordinated development of the three major NAND chip fields), Jiangfeng Electronics (domestic leader in high-purity targets), Jingsheng Electromechanical (multiple layouts in the field of crystal growth equipment), and Fuhan Micro (a leading domestic video surveillance chip designer).

  From the perspective of the overall brokerage rating, Guangxun Technology (16 companies), Han’s Laser (14 companies), San’an Optoelectronics (11 companies), Siwei Tuxin (10 companies), Northern Huachuang (8 companies), Hengtong Optoelectronics (8 companies)Seven stocks, including Dinglong and Dinglong (5), have been optimistic about the institutions. Within the past 30 days, the number of optimistic rating agencies such as “buy” or “overweight” was 5 or more. The performance of the market is worth paying attention to.

Wan Liyang (002434) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: CVT Volume Drives Accelerated Revenue Side Improvement

Wan Liyang (002434) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: CVT Volume Drives Accelerated Revenue Side Improvement

The report reads the cumulative revenue of 32 in Q3 2019.

9 billion +1.

95% in the third quarter quarter +13.

2% MoM +8.

25%; 2019Q3 gradually returns to the mother’s net profit3.

$ 4.8 billion -5.

36% in the third quarter +30.

6% was flat month-on-month, and Q3 results basically met our previous estimates.

The investment volume of CVT is to drive Q3’s income-end extension to achieve a quarter-on-quarter improvement. The main reason is that 2019Q3 will expand the production of narrow passenger cars by -13.

9% in the third quarter, -8% in the third half of the year +7.


2019Q3 gradually Geely production for six months -13.

3%, of which Q3 is -15% year-on-year +9.


In Q3 2019, Chery’s auto output increased by +5.

9%, of which Q3 + 10%杭州桑拿网 QoQ +14.


In this context, the reason why the company’s revenue end can enter the continuous improvement channel is mainly because CVT cut into five models of Geely’s supply chain and gradually increased its volume, in line with our estimates.

During the transition of commercial vehicles, the implementation ratio of G series beneficiary countries’ six emission standards has gradually increased, effectively offsetting the impact of light truck governance overload, and further boosting income growth.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the company’s revenue growth rate is expected to continue to accelerate: 1) Due to the recovery of industry demand, the production of Chery + Geely improved, coupled with the increase of CVT supporting models of the company + climbing volume, the automatic transportation business will further accelerate.

2) The G-series continues to improve the transition of commercial vehicles.

The internal control effect is significant, and the improvement in gross profit margin is still worth looking forward to during the third quarter of 2019.

03%, which is a decrease of 6 integers from the previous month, and a decrease of 2.

35 units. Thanks to the company’s strengthening of internal control, the sales / management / financial expense ratio also decreased.

2019Q3 gross profit margin 19.

62%, down 4 from the previous month.

8 averages, which decrease by 0 every year.

33 units.

The possible reason is that the maximum production capacity is still at a local level + product supporting structure.

Looking forward to the future: the increase in the expense ratio during the period of strengthening internal control continued to decline steadily and slightly, and the gross margin transfer capacity increased + the rate of self-made components increased to promote improvement.

CVT’s heavy volume logic is undergoing preliminary verification. Maintaining the “Buy” rating is expected to return to the parent’s net profit in 2019-2021: 5/6.


5 trillion, 43%, 34%, 27% annual growth rate, EPS is 0.



64 yuan, corresponding PE is 22/16/13 times.

Continue to be optimistic about the continuous heavy volume logic of the company’s CVT transition business, performance acceleration continues to accelerate, and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Depreciation rises more than expected; original growth exceeds expectations.

Fuyao Glass (600660) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Profit Meets Expected High Score and Stable Performance

Fuyao Glass (600660) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Profit Meets Expected High Score and Stable Performance
Profit in 2018 increased by 31%, and performance was in line with expectations. Fuyao Glass’s 2018 annual report achieved operating income of 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8%; net profit attributable to mothers 41.2% 10%, an annual increase of 31% (deduction + 14%).Looking at the quarter, Q4 single quarter Fuyao’s operating income -4%, profit -14.6%.Gross profit margin 42.6%, previous exchange gains 2.580,000 yuan (2017 exchange loss loss of 3.8.7 billion).In 2018, it is expected that the impact of foreign exchange cashing will increase investment income and company profit growth after asset sales by zero.29%; Dividends paid for every 10 shares in 201811.5 yuan (including mid-term dividends). On the whole, Fuyao’s operations were stable in 2018, its dividend ratio increased, and its performance was in line with expectations. Gross profit margin and steady 杭州夜生活网 cash flow, ROE hit a three-year high of Fuyao Glass’s gross profit margin in 2018 of 42.6%, which is basically the same every year; the cost rate is 79.67%, down by 1 every year.58pct (increased by 1 after deduction of exchange rate.55pct).In 2018, the company’s operating cash inflow was US $ 23.5 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and the net operating cash flow was US $ 5.8 billion, an increase of 18% year-on-year.In 2018, Fuyao revised its return on net assets by 21%, the highest since 2015. Domestically sound, overseas revenue accelerated and business breakthrough accelerated. By 2018, Fuyao Automotive Glass realized operating income of 19.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8%.3% (sales +4.5%, ASP + 3.In terms of narrowing the region, Fuyao’s domestic operating income in 2018 was US $ 11.6 billion, of which it was basically flat, and overseas revenue was US $ 8.3 billion, an increase of 25.6%, of which Fuyao’s US plant (float + steam wave) in 2018 achieved operating income of 3.4 billion yuan, profit2.50,000 yuan (2017 Fuyao US profit 0.05 billion).According to the data of the China Automobile Association, domestic auto production in 2018 was -4.At 16%, the company still maintained super-industry growth against the backdrop of a weak domestic auto market, while overseas markets showed accelerated growth and improved profitability (net margin).4%), must have a certain anti-cycle ability. Risks suggest that the profitability of U.S. factories is not up to expectations, and the prosperity of the domestic auto market has declined. Steady performance, further synergy in the industry chain, maintaining overweight rating. We believe that the annual report performance of Fuyao is in line with expectations. Under the background of the size of the domestic auto market in 18 years, it has maintained stable revenue and increased overseas profits.The reported company acquired Mitsubishi Trim, Fuzhou Mould, established Tongliao Fine Aluminum, acquired overseas aluminum trim strip assets, further promoted upstream and downstream synergy in the industrial chain, and formed a systematic industrial advantage “moat”.We forecast 19/20/21 profit of 41.4/45.7/50.4 trillion, corresponding to EPS respectively 1.65/1.82/2.01 yuan, corresponding to PE is 14.7/13.3/12.1x, high dividends and blue chips, maintaining an overweight rating.

Preliminary again-interest rate cut-10 BP cuts, there is still room for interest rate cuts

For the first time, “rate cuts” again cut 10 BP cuts, there is still room for interest rate cuts

China and the United States released important indicators, how to look at the market outlook?

Please pay attention to the “Weekly Market Insights” of Sina Finance University every Sunday morning. Jiang Xianwei, chief market strategist at Shanghai Investment Bank, will take you to take a look at the investment opportunities of the week.

  Original title: Heavy!

Breakthrough again “cut interest rates” and cut 10 BP!

A shares have been helped again, the GEM rose 3%, a three-year high!

Reduction in standards and the remaining space for interest rate cuts: The securities firm China has more “blessings”
that provide redundant liquidity in time after the holiday, and “interest rate cuts” have come on schedule again.

  On February 17, news was gradually released saying that the 200 billion one-year medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation was carried out that day, and the bid interest rate was 3.

15%, a decrease of 10bp compared to the earlier period; launched a 7-day reverse repurchase of 1,000 trillion, and won the bid interest rate of 2.


Today, there is a 1 trillion reverse repurchase expiry, no MLF expires, and a total of 700 billion yuan in net liquidity was achieved.

  Today ‘s open market operations have the following characteristics: 1. After 10bps of “reduction in interest rates” in the recent repurchase, MLF “reduced interest rates” by the same amount as scheduled.

  2. In view of the 1 trillion reverse repurchase expiry today, the operation scale of 2000MLF is not high, which also reflects the impact of factors such as expected pressure and the full resumption of work, and the alternative monetary policy has maintained a sound tone to replace changes.

  3. Within three years, it has begun to form a normal MLF operation in the middle of each month, which not only puts ample liquidity into the market, but also provides price guidance for the 20-day LPR monthly quote. It is estimated that the loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on the 20th of this month) Will also be reduced accordingly, which will promote further downward interest rates on loans.

  4. From the beginning of the year to the present, 200 billion yuan of medium- and long-term MLFs have been put in place, and short-term reverse repurchases have been adopted, which reflects the characteristics of the long-term shift in liquidity arrangements.

Some analysts believe that this may declare the end of the “care” for the financial market liquidity two weeks before the market opens, and the idea of monetary policy has shifted from short-term stability to recovery of the economy in the medium and long term. The amount of reverse repurchase may help shrink, butMedium and long-term liquidity will gradually increase.

  Affected by the “interest rate cut”, today’s major stock indexes across the two cities became popular after the opening of the A-share market.

In the end, the brokerage firm China issued a statement that the Shanghai index rose more than 1%, the Shenzhen index rose nearly 2%, and the GEM rose more than 3%, a three-year high.

For Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index opened lower and higher, and the press release was terminated with an increase of more than 0.

7%, back above 28,000 points.

  Net return of 700 billion yuan does not change. The market has ample liquidity. After a new MLF becomes a normal operation in the middle of each month, with the “notice” that the reverse reverse repurchase rate was rarely lowered earlier, today the MLF “rate cut” is fully expected in the market.In.

On February 3, implement 1 ahead of time.

The 2 trillion-day reverse repurchase operation has periods of 7 days and 14 days, respectively, and interest rates have been reduced by 10bp.

  Reverse repurchase rates have been reduced by a small margin. Usually, changes in MLF interest rates drive changes in reverse repurchase rates. The actual reduction is because the epidemic has caused some panic in financial market sentiment. In order to stabilize market expectations, the market will be gradually opened after the holiday.Provided huge short-term liquidity on the first day and pushed down the reverse repo rate.

  Therefore, after the previous reverse repurchase rate has been reduced by 10bp, it is reasonable that the MLF bidding interest rate is also reduced by 10bp today.

Since the market opened after the holidays, in order to stabilize market confidence, redundant short-term liquidity has been provided in advance in a timely manner, and the market capital price has been kept at a low level.

At least, even though the total liquidity today is a net withdrawal of 700 billion yuan, the overall liquidity of the market is still very abundant, the capital price continues to fall, and Shibor has replaced 1 overnight.

256% is the lowest point in the past month. Shibor interest rates of other varieties usually continue to fall.

  Founder Securities (right protection) chief economist Color said that only 200 billion MLF was implemented today, the scale is slightly lower than market expectations, this aspect reflects the counter-cyclical adjustment of the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy on the impact of the epidemic; instead,It also shows that the balance of monetary policy adjustments and counter-cyclical adjustments is maintained in a continuous balance.

  ”In January, the sharp change rose, and the potential potential in February may remain high, or may increase further. Therefore, this time the operation of the MLF is considered to be more modest and has no strong stimulus.

“Said the color.

  At the same time, Hue believes that the recent changes in the stock market, the market liquidity is very abundant, and the market confidence has changed; gradually, due to the gradual gradual resumption of business, it is expected to resume work in a large area in three months, the current corporate credit demand is limited, so graduallyMonetary policy operations will also maintain a certain rhythm, rather than lightening a hand-held card.

  Monetary policy is being fine-tuned. From the short-term stability to the mid-to-long-term economic recovery, a new round of LPR quotation results is about to be released on February 20. There are early reverse repurchase rates, and MLF rates have been reduced by “leaders.” This month’s LPR reduction is almost a steel plate nail.Nail matters, too many analysts expect that the 1-year and 5-year or more LPR will be reduced by 10bp, reaching 4 respectively.

05% and 4.

7% has gradually improved through the epidemic prevention and control indicators, the stock market has stabilized, and companies have resumed work. These favorable factors will also promote the timely adjustment and fine-tuning of monetary policy operations.

From the two weeks before the opening of the market after the holiday, the focus of the monetary policy operation at that time was mainly in two aspects: one is to maintain short-term liquidity overlapping supply and stabilize the financial market confidence; the other is to accurately drip irrigation through special reloans and other methodsTo support epidemic prevention and control.

  However, considering that supporting the resumption of production and restoration of enterprises and the restoration of the macro economy are also the top priorities of macro policies in the future, some analysts expect that monetary policy may also shorten the short-term liquidity replenishment and support the long-term credit demand.

  Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of China Everbright Securities, told a Chinese reporter at the securities firm that, in fact, when the liquidity was launched at the beginning of the month, the transfer was prominent in the “reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system during the special period of epidemic prevention and control.”
Obviously, the long-term current “care” of capital interest rate is not mainly due to the distortion of the macro economy.
The impact of the epidemic on the economy is temporary. China’s economy has been improving for a long time, and the fundamentals of growth have not changed.

Therefore, after two weeks of liquidity “care”, it is the general trend to gradually guide the return of the interest rate of funds through the shrinking of the open market.

  Hue also believes that the idea of monetary policy is shifting from short-term stability to recovery of the economy in the medium and long term, which means that the amount of reverse repurchase may help shrink, but liquidity in the medium and long term will gradually increase.

  The color indicates that in the face of the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy and markets, the main long-term hedging methods are targeted monetary policies and reverse repurchases.

In particular, since the outbreak, a huge amount of reverse repurchase operations have been gradually carried out to provide sufficient liquidity to the market and stabilize market expectations.

However, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the demand for resumption of production and resumption of production by enterprises has increased, and the thinking of monetary policy operations will shift from short-term reverse repo operations to MLF and LPR operations, accompanied by targeted reductions.

The purpose is to support the medium and long-term credit needs of enterprises, not to maintain stability in the short term.

  ”The impact of the epidemic on the economy is short-term, and the macroeconomic probability is likely to return to normal at the end of March, without affecting economic growth in the second quarter.

However, the specific economic impact of the epidemic on each region is different. Therefore, monetary policy thinking should be oriented, accurate liquidity placement and interest rate concessions. Special refinancing is an example.

Weighing in color, it is expected that the future monetary and monetary policy will remain timely and appropriate as it is supplemented in the long term, and the focus of subsequent monetary policy will be to accurately support the economy of the affected areas and small and micro private enterprises affected by the epidemic through structural monetary policies.

It is expected that a new round of directional reduction will be made at the end of February.

  Wen Bin, the chief macroeconomics expert of Minsheng Bank, believes that in the next stage, monetary policy will remain flexible and appropriate, increase counter-cyclical conversion efforts, shift the decline through rising ranges, reduce the RRR and interest rate, and maintain reasonable and adequate liquidity.Under the circumstances, the monetary policy 杭州桑拿 sanctions mechanism will be further smoothed to effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy.

Shanghai Airport (600009) released a comment: Q4 single-quarter cost increased by 2.

900 million fixed assets and the net profit attributable to the parent at the end of the Q3 period decreased by 5.


Shanghai Airport (600009) released a comment: Q4 single-quarter cost increased by 2.

900 million fixed assets and the net profit attributable to the parent at the end of the Q3 period decreased by 5.


The company announced the announcement of the 2019 performance report.

19FY operating income, operating costs and net profit attributable to mothers were 109 respectively.


3, 50.

300 million, an increase of 17 respectively.

52%, 18.

56%, 18.

88%; 19Q4 operating income, operating costs, and net profit attributable to the mother were 27.

4, 16.

2, 10.

400 million, an increase of 13 respectively.

44%, 39.

26%, -5.


4Q19 revenue dropped 0.

16 trillion is expected to be mainly due to the slight insertion of tax-free sales income.

The company’s aircraft took off and landed, and passenger explosions increased by 1 in 19FY.

39%, 2.

89%, 19Q4 respectively changed -0 in half a year.

29%, 0.


Among them, due to the influence of overseas factors and the advance of the Spring Festival, the number of cross-border passengers in Q4 increased slightly by 0 every second.

31%, cyclic oxide 8.


The increase in the number of passengers overlaps with the e-commerce promotion and shunting, and the transition effect of the satellite hall transition. We estimate that the tax-free sales of the airport in 19Q4 decreased month-on-month, resulting in a slight tilt in Q4 tax-free rental income.

4Q19 operating costs increased by 2.

94 ppm is expected to be mainly due to an increase in depreciation and lease expenses.

With the opening of the Satellite Hall on September 16, 19, Q4 asset-related costs have increased: (1) The company’s Q3 transfer to solid is approximately $ 11.8 billion, and the fixed assets at the end of the Q4 period are equivalent to the end of the Q3 period. Based on the depreciation days, the Q4 depreciation cost is calculatedThe ring increased by about 1.

500 million.

(2) The company expects the lease fee for 19 years to be 10.

500 million US dollars (according to the company’s related party transaction announcement), 19杭州夜网论坛H1 has occurred4.

800 million, correspondingly estimated 19H2 ring increased by about 0.

8 ppm, the incremental part should be mainly reflected in the fourth quarter.

The residual cost loop increased by approximately 0.6 million, variable cost growth is relatively controllable.

Profit forecast and investment recommendations: Under the impact of the epidemic, the number of civil aviation passengers in the 40-day Spring Festival transportation period will decrease by 47.

5% (data from the Ministry of Transport), the recent Pudong Airport flight rate in February was basically 20?
25% interval change (Airsavvi data), assuming that the company ‘s 20Q1 and Q2 passengers exploded, the number of takeoffs and landings decreased by 50% and 10%, respectively, and tax-free income was shortened by 40% and 20%.36.


300 上海夜网论坛 million, corresponding to PE of 38.


9 times.

According to DCF estimates, the company’s reasonable value is 79.

41 yuan / share, give “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: Air passenger flow gradually exceeds expectations, passenger consumption expectations shrink, tax exemption policy changes, lease and variable cost growth exceed expectations