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[How to remove fish smell of diesel]_How to taste_What method

銆愰奔鏈夋煷娌瑰懗鎬庝箞鍘婚櫎銆慱濡備綍鍘诲懗_浠€涔堟柟娉?
濡傛灉骞虫椂鎴戜滑涔板洖鏉ョ殑楸兼湁涓€鑲℃煷娌瑰懗鍎匡紝杩欐椂鍊欒寮曡捣璀︽儠锛屽彲鑳芥槸杩欑楸煎彈鍒颁簡姹℃煋锛屼篃鏈夊彲鑳芥槸鍥犱负涓嶈壇鍟嗗涓轰簡鍦ㄨ繍杈撹繃绋嬪綋涓紝閬垮厤楸煎嚭鐜拌厫锛屽彲鑳戒細鍔犱簡涓€浜涘姘у墏锛屼粠鑰屽鑷翠簡楸兼湁鏌存补鍛筹紝瀵逛簬鎴戜滑鏅€氫汉鏉ヨ锛屾渶濂戒笉瑕佸悆杩欐牱鐨勯奔锛屽鏋滃疄鍦ㄦ兂鍚冿紝涓€瀹氳鎶婃煷娌瑰懗鍘婚櫎銆傚彲浠ュ幓闄ょ殑What do you mean?銆 佺 崂 姘 存 场 楸 Fried and canned?鏂ゆ按鍊掑叆鐩嗕腑锛屽姞鍏ラ€傞噺锛堜竴鑸负鍗婁袱锛夌洂鎼呮媽绋€閲婏紝灏嗕拱鍥炵殑娲婚奔鏀捐繘鐩嗕腑锛岃楸奸€氳繃楸奸硟寰椾笉鏂懠鍚?Do you know how to get rid of worms and worms?Relief of worms and worms for relief of forge bugs ╃ 儳 楗  墠 Di 湼 鍓 ╀ 笅 镄 嬬 窐 繫 織 郄 郄 鄂€傚皢瀹版潃鍚庣殑楸煎厛娴告场鍦ㄦ窐绫虫按涓劧鍚庢竻娲楁槸闄ゅ紓鍛虫渶缁胯壊鐜繚鐨勬柟娉曘€?銆佽尪姘村幓寮傚懗灏嗛奔寮€鑶涚牬鑲氭礂鍑€鍚庯紝娴告场鍦ㄥ€掓湁鑼舵按鐨勭泦涓腑5鈥?0鍒嗛挓锛屼篃鍙互寮傚懗銆傞€氬父1鏂ゅ埌2鏂ょ殑楸硷紝鍙涓€鏉祿鑼跺啿鍏戞垚娣¤尪姘村嵆鍙€傞奔鏈夋煷娌瑰懗鍙兘鏈変袱涓師鍥狅細涓€涓彲鑳芥槸鍦ㄨ繍杈撹繃绋嬩腑鍔犱簡涓€浜涘姘у墏锛屽彲鑳戒骇鐢熸煷娌瑰懗锛涘彟涓€绉嶅彲鑳藉氨鏄奔鏄粠琚薄鏌撴按鍩熸崬涓婃潵鐨勶紝涔熷彲鑳芥湁鏌存补鍛炽€傝繖绉嶉奔鍚冧簡杞荤殑鍙兘浼氱敓鐥咃紝缁忓父鍚冨彲鑳戒細鑷寸檶锛屽缓璁斁寮冭繖绉嶅甫The chain is full of roses?Creeping and running?1 銆 人 椰 戰 戸 楸 楸 楾 栠 栧 The draft ship 銄 勯 哯 鎊 嶈  钖 庴 楴 楸 楸 尧尧 專 雲雲 雲雲 門 殤 殤 殤 殓 雲 郉 曉書曉 歉 雲 應 歉 选 歉 选 歉 郀 雲 門 选 曉 書 門 歉 雲 选 歉 选 选 進 書 門 选 駀 擉 雲 选 駀 擉 雲 选 选 駀 擉 雲 間 选 选 駀 擉 雲 选 选 选 僉 雲 間 雲 槤 Checked by the way between the investigation and investigation傛湁姣掔殑楸煎寘鎷閰氥€侀噸閲戝睘鎴栧啘鑽薄鏌撶殑楸硷紝浣撳唴鍚湁鐢熺墿姣掔礌鐨勯奔绛夈€傚甫鏈夋祿閲嶇叅娌瑰懗鐨勯奔铏炬槸閰氭薄鏌撶殑缁撴灉;鎬诲悆浣撳瀷澶х殑娴烽奔濡傞波楸笺€侀噾鏋奔銆佹棗楸笺€侀箔楸煎拰鏂瑰ご楸煎鏄撳彂鐢熸睘涓瘨銆傜壒鍒寮鸿皟锛屽瓡濡囥€佸摵涔虫湡濡囧コ鍜屽噯澶囨€€瀛曠殑濡囧コ锛屼笉瑕侀鐢ㄨ繖浜涢奔銆?The temperature is below ℃, and the temperature is higher than that in the chain. It’s very easy to drill down and drill down. It’s not easy to drill down.礌鐨勯奔绛夈€傚甫鏈夋祿閲嶇叅娌瑰懗鐨勯奔铏炬槸閰氭薄鏌撶殑缁撴灉;鎬诲悆浣撳瀷澶х殑娴烽奔濡傞波楸笺€侀噾鏋奔銆佹棗楸笺€侀箔楸煎拰鏂瑰ご楸煎鏄撳彂鐢熸睘涓瘨銆傜壒鍒寮鸿皟锛屽瓡濡囥€佸摵涔虫湡濡囧コ鍜屽噯澶囨€€瀛曠殑濡囧コ锛屼笉瑕侀鐢ㄨ繖浜涢奔銆?銆佸甫瀵勭敓铏殑楸奸奔鑲変腑杩樺彲鑳藉瓨鍦ㄥ崕鏋濈澗鍚歌櫕绛夛紝闄や簡鍔犲伐鏃惰褰诲簳娲楀共鍑€澶栵紝鐑硅皟鏃惰娉ㄦ剰鐓啛鐓€忋€?銆佸捀楸笺€佺啅楸笺€侀奔骞插洜鍚簹纭濊兒绫昏嚧鐧岀墿璐紝涓嶅簲璇ヨ繃澶氶鐢紝鐓庣偢鐗瑰埆鏄 儳 鐒 ︾ 楑 楸 酑 钖 Seed tweezers inch ╄Sichuan ╄Sichuan 叜 傜 幆 鑳 餳 獳 爏 戝 悆 瓆 将 呆呆 劆 劆 銆?

[How to pick dragon fruit _ how to pick dragon fruit is sweet]

What is the difference between the tenon and the tenon, the pick and the end?
鎻愬埌鐏緳鏋滆繖绉嶆按鏋滐紝澶у涓€瀹氫細鎯冲埌寰堝缇庨锛屾垚鐔熺殑鐏緳鏋滄槸鍙互鐩存帴鍚冪殑锛屽彟澶栬繕鍙互鍋氱伀榫欐灉瑗跨背鎹烇紝鎴栬€呭仛鐏緳鏋滈吀濂舵眮鏉ュ枬绛夌瓑锛岃繖浜涚編椋熷悆璧锋潵鍛抽亾閮藉緢棣欑敎锛岀壒鍒€傚悎鍦ㄥ澶╃殑鏃跺€欏悆锛岃€屼笖杩欎簺缇庨鎵€鍚儹閲忛兘寰堜綆锛屾墍浠ュ悆浜嗕笉鐢ㄦ媴蹇冮暱鑳栵紝涓嬮潰鏁欏ぇ瀹舵寫閫夌伀榫欐灉鐨勪竴浜涙妧宸с€傛€庢牱鎸戠伀榫欐灉鎵嶇敎锛熺伀榫欐灉鐨杽鏋滆倝澶氾紝鍛抽亾棣欑敎鍙彛锛屾棤璁哄皬瀛╄繕鏄€佷汉閮芥瘮杈冨枩娆㈠悆锛屾湁浜涗汉鍦ㄨ喘涔扮伀榫欐灉鐨勬椂鍊欑敱浜庝笉鐭ラ亾鎸戦€夌伀榫欐灉鐨勬妧宸э紝鎬讳細涔板埌涓€浜涘懗閬撶壒鍒贰鐨勭伀榫欐灉锛屼粖澶╁氨鏉ュ垎浜竴涓嬪浣曟寫閫夊埌鍙堝ぇ鍙堢敎鍙堟柊椴滅殑鐏緳鏋溿€?銆佺湅涓€鑸柊椴滅伀榫欐灉涓婄殑閭d簺灏忛碁鐗囬兘鏄潚缁胯壊鐨勶紝鍏舵灉鐨憟鍏ㄧ孩鐘讹紝瑕佹槸娌℃湁鎴愮啛鐨勭伀榫欐灉鍏惰〃鐨殑棰滆壊涓昏涓烘贰绾㈣壊锛屽鏋滄槸鍌ㄥ瓨杩囦箙鐨勭伀榫欐灉槌炵墖鐨勫皷閮ㄥ氨浼氬彉寰楁灟榛勩€?銆佹巶鎸戦€夌伀榫欐灉鐨勬椂鍊欙紝涓€瀹氳澶氭嬁鍑犱釜涓€璧锋巶涓€鎺傚垎閲忥紝涓€鑸按鍒嗚秺楂樹笖鏋滆倝鏇村姞楗辨弧鐨勭伀榫欐灉鎺傝捣鏉ヤ篃灏辨洿鍔犵殑閲嶄竴浜涳紝鍙鏋滄槸鐗瑰埆杞荤殑澶氬崐鍒欐槸缂哄皯姘村垎鐨勩€?銆佹懜涔扮伀榫欐灉鐨勬椂鍊欒繕鍙互鐢ㄦ墜鎸囨懜涓€涓嬪畠鐨勬灉鐨紝楗辨弧鐨勭伀榫欐灉鍏惰〃鐨篃鏄潪甯哥殑鍏夋粦锛屼粩缁嗙湅杩樹細缁欎汉涓€绉嶉┈涓婂氨瑕佹拺瑁備簡鐨勬劅瑙夛紝鍙鏄懜璧锋潵琛ㄧ毊涓嶆槸寰堝厜婊戞垨鑰呰蒋濉屽鐨勬劅瑙変篃灏卞鍗婃槸涓嶆柊椴滅殑浜嗐€?銆佹崗鏃犺鏄お鐔熻繕鏄病鏈夋垚鐔熺殑鐏緳鏋滐紝鍏跺懗閬撻兘涓嶆槸寰堝ソ璐拱鏃躲€備竴瀹氳閫夋嫨閭g鎹忚捣鏉ヤ笉鏄緢纭篃涓嶆槸寰堣蒋鐨勭伀榫欐灉锛岃繖绉嶇伀榫欐灉鐢变簬姘村垎浠ュ強绯栧垎鐨勫惈閲忔瘮杈冨銆傚悆璧锋潵涓嶄絾涓嶄細鏈変竴绉嶆订鍛筹紝鑰屼笖杩樹細鐗瑰埆鐨勬竻鐢溿€傚綋鐒朵簡锛岄櫎浜嗕互涓婄殑鍑犵璐拱鎶€宸э紝澶у鍦ㄨ喘涔扮伀榫欐灉鏃讹紝鍦ㄤ笉鐭ラ亾濡備綍鎸戦€夌殑鎯呭喌涓嬶紝鏈€濂借繕鏄喘涔伴偅绉嶇湅璧锋潵姣旇緝鍦嗕箮涔庣殑鐏緳鏋滐紝杩欑鐏緳鏋滃彲姣旈偅浜涢暱寰楅暱闀跨殑鐏緳鏋滆濂藉悆寰堝銆?

[Practice of pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge]_Homemade methods of pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge_How to make pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge_How to make pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge

[Practice of pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge]_Homemade methods of pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge_How to make pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge_How to make pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge

A healthy diet and balanced nutrition are an important guarantee for our health. Although eating in a restaurant is simple, it is difficult to ensure a healthy diet, so it is best to make it yourself if you can. The practice of pork ribs and pumpkin rice porridge is actually verySimple, as long as you have the intention, you can do it yourself.

1. Chopped pumpkin for spare, 2. Washed pork ribs, ready, 3, add water to the pot, 4, prepare rice, 5, braised pork ribs in water, 6, boil pork ribs in water, prepare braised water, 7,Pork ribs are poured into the pot. After the water is boiling, open it for a few minutes, then cover it, press it for 15 minutes, turn off the fire after 15 minutes, 8, start the pot again, use a pressure cooker, do not use too much water, 9, then start the pot againUse a casserole, pour the ribs from the pressure cooker into the casserole, 10, put rice, pumpkin, cubes, pepper, cooking wine in the casserole, 11, boil the fire and then change to medium heat and slowly boil, 12, the specific timeIt should be more than 20 minutes. The rice is cooked, 13, it is in a bowl, and 14, it tastes good. The rice and pork ribs are fragrant. Some people may say that they ca n’t cook for themselves because of long working hours.Simple, it can be done in a short time frame.

[Can I eat ginseng ginseng]_Can I eat it?

[Can I eat ginseng ginseng]_Can I eat it?

Ginseng is a rhizome of ginseng tea. Its main function is to induce vomiting and can also be added to Chinese medicinal materials. This is a very natural emetic, so you don’t have to worry about it. Don’t take medicine when you don’t want to vomit.To understand this, we also need to know that in fact, there are a lot of contraindications when taking ginseng. You cannot use it arbitrarily. You must master the correct principles and methods of use so that you can better absorb it.

Panax ginseng is the rhizome of ginseng (Panax ginseng). It was previously used only as an emetic drug. In order to develop the resources of ginsenoside and provide a scientific basis for its comprehensive utilization, we studied the soap constituents of ginseng aloe head.

From the acid products of the ginseng ginseng total soap test, three kinds were isolated.

Saponin, that is, ginseng latanosoap test elements A, B, and C, were identified as oleanolic acid “Ben Jing Feng Yuan” said “Ginseng alkaloid gas, specializing in vomiting”, other medical records are also recordedGinseng can cause vomiting.

Ginseng accounts for about 14% of the weight of ginseng roots, and its total saponin content reaches 14.

56%, ginseng stem and leaf saponins have pharmacological effects similar to ginseng root saponin in many aspects, and are used to treat a variety of debilitating diseases. Is there a similar effect of ginseng?

Whether it can cause vomiting, it is estimated that the author took the ginseng to test it.

The used ginseng is Northeast second-class white ginseng and 25 red ginseng heads.

Author 1, female, 38 years old, suffered from acute pancreatitis on December 21, 1983. Without water, on the 22nd, tried 3 grams of ginseng reed head, and fry for 20 minutes (the same below) about 100Milliliter, take it for a while, after a few hours without any nausea and abnormal reactions, I feel more energetic.

The contraindications for taking ginseng are as follows: 1. Ginseng should not be abused.

With the improvement of people’s living standards and economic conditions, a considerable part of people’s outlook on life has shifted from food and clothing to fitness and extended life. It is generous to spend some money on ginseng or ginseng products.

Some people drink ginseng as tea in a thermos cup in all seasons, some chew ginseng as chewing gum, and have regular rations all year round, in various forms, all of which belong to abuse of ginseng.

The consequences of abuse are unpredictable.

2. Avoid radish (including carrot, white radish and green radish) and various seafood after taking ginseng.

The ancient medical book talked about radish “down the atmosphere, eliminate the valley”.

Modern studies of radish digestion and diuresis, the same as the ancient view, ginseng nourishing vitality is its main function.

These two, one big Qi and one big Qi, just offset.

So there is this taboo.

3. Avoid tea.

After taking ginseng, do not drink tea, otherwise the effect of ginseng will be impaired.

4. For any frying or stewing, avoid using metal cookware.

Nanjing Securities (601990) Annual Report and First Quarterly Report Commentary: Self-operated significant pull Q1 net profit increased by 91%

Nanjing Securities (601990) Annual Report and First Quarterly Report Commentary: Self-operated significant pull Q1 net profit increased by 91%

Event: In 2018, Nanjing Securities achieved revenue12.

34 ‰, at least -11.

13%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

32 trillion, one year -43.

55%; EPS is 0.

09 yuan.

As of the end of 18, the company’s total assets were 247.

75 trillion, +5 for ten years.

42%; net assets 105.

930,000 yuan, +13 for ten years.

10%.

Capital leveraged financing 46.

14%.

Recommended average ROE2.

32%, a decrease of 2 per year.

10 averages.

A cash dividend of RMB 1 is distributed for every 10 shares.

00 yuan (including tax), the total distribution of cash is about 2.

7.5 billion (including tax); 2 shares for every 10 shares, a total increase of 5.

5 billion shares.

In the first quarter of 2019, Nanjing Securities achieved revenue5.

07 million yuan, +53 a year.

84%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

11 trillion, ten years +91.

13%; EPS is 0.

08 yuan a year + 100%.

Total assets 314.

810,000 yuan, +27 from the end of last year.

07%, net assets 108.

2.1 billion, +2 from the end of the previous year.

15%.

ROE is 1.

97%, an increase of 0 from the end of the previous year.

80 units.

Brokerage, self-employment, and integration of both forces, the traditional business has grown rapidly.

In the first quarter of 2019, the revenue of brokerage, self-employment and Liangrong were 1 respectively.

3.7 billion, 1.

5.7 billion, 1.66 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

25%, 201.

92%, 55.

14%, the three businesses together contributed over 90% of revenue.

Investment bank operating budgets, revenues decline every year.

The company’s investment banking business revenue in the first quarter was zero.

3.4 billion, down 29 every year.

17%.

With the improvement of the market environment and the company’s development of the science and technology board business, the investment bank’s 北京男士会所 business income in the second half of the year increased.

Investment suggestion: After the initial public offering, the company’s capital strength will increase, and business transformation will accelerate. Benefiting from the recovery of the securities market, the reform plan for business line transformation is expected to appear further.

The company deeply cultivates the Jiangsu and Ningxia markets. The actual controller is Nanjing State-owned Assets Group, which has expanded capital strength and outstanding resource advantages.

The company is currently evaluating PB2.

90 times, reflecting the properties of the new shares.

Risk reminders: the activity of equity reform investment declines; market risks; capital market reforms fail to meet expectations; business transformation fails to meet expectations; and the quality of listed companies on the science and technology board does not meet expectations.

Focus Media (002027) 2019 Interim Report Express News Comments: Attributable Net Profit in the First Half of the Year-77% Weak Cycle Expansion Continues to Under Pressure

Focus Media (002027) 2019 Interim Report Express News Comments: Attributable Net Profit in the First Half of the Year-77% Weak Cycle Expansion Continues to Under Pressure

The company released a quick report on its 2019 interim results. 2019H1 revenue is every 20%, and the attributable net profit is vertically offset by 77%. It is mainly affected by the industry’s low business climate, its own customer structure adjustment and counter-cyclical screen expansion.

We believe that the company’s long-term offline traffic entry value is stable, but the weak cycle is under increasing pressure and we maintain a “Hold” rating.

The company released the 2019 Interim Report Express: In the first half of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 57.

20 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 20%; operating profit 9.

80 ‰, a year of decline of 76%; profit growth of 9.

5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 76%; net profit attributable to mothers7.

8南京桑拿网0 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 77%; basic income is 0.

05 yuan, a 78% decline each year.

The weak macro economy is superimposed on the restructuring of Focus’s own customer structure, which is putting pressure on the income side.

① In the first half of 2019, the macro economy was weak, and the demand in China’s advertising market was weak. According to CTR monitoring, the domestic advertising market ‘s publication costs in May 2019 decreased by 5%, continuing an alternating trend. At the same time, under the weak background, advertisers have replaced Internet media.The effect is a direct and monitorable channel, so Focus Media is under pressure to compete for advertisers’ budgets. The company’s H1 revenue in 2019 will increase by -20%, and we expect that Tencent, Ali and other skull Internet giants will continue to grow by more than 20%.

② The company is facing pressure from customer structure adjustment. In recent years, mobile Internet traffic dividends have tended to be weak. New economic enterprises have been regrouped to go public. After the “listing sprint” is completed, advertising has been reduced, and the financing environment to replace the primary market has tightened. Some Internet companies have experienced varying degrees of funding.The chain is tight, so the overall investment in the new Internet economy has continued to decline. Since 2018, Focus Media’s revenue from Internet advertisers has continued to decline, and has replaced less than 20%.

Under the rapid expansion of the screen, the cost side has risen significantly, and at the same time, asset impairment has increased, dragging down profits.

① The company began to accelerate the expansion of the screen in 2018H1, and the number of screens expanded to 2.75 million (end of 2019Q1). Therefore, the company’s 2019H1 increased in terms of media resource rent, equipment depreciation, labor costs, and operation and maintenance costs.

② At the same time, in a weak economic environment, the speed of customer repayments generally slows down, the aging structure deteriorates, and the risks increase. The company’s credit impairment loss provision and provision for the company’s accounts also increase correspondingly, affecting profitability.

The audience of the company’s media is concerned about the value and long-term competitiveness. It is recommended to reduce growth expectations and wait for the continuous penetration of consumer advertisers to drive a long-term recovery of revenue.

① By the end of the first quarter of 2019, the number of company resources increased to 275.

50,000, network resource coverage and penetration increased before the first quarter of 2018. We believe that the two competitive advantages of the company ‘s media resources network and sales network are still significant. At the same time, Alibaba ‘s strategic shareholding will enhance the company ‘s long-term media value.The height of the offline core traffic inlet is still stable.

② Even the new economy advertisers’ launch areas, but Focus Media, as an important brand entry portal for core consumer groups, has a solid value for consumer goods advertisers, of which the daily consumer goods industry accounted for 24% in 2018.

We believe that the introduction of the company’s continued penetration of consumer product advertisers, the consumer goods industry is expected to become the company’s core customer base in the future, and to regain new economic advertisers’ investment, driving revenue to pick up.

To be sure, considering that the consumer goods industry is relatively stable, and that the direct advertising effect of media owned by Focus Media is not as good as that of Internet media, and it further captures the difference in advertiser budget proportions, we believe that the company ‘s revenue growth rate may be difficult to return to historical levels in the future.Low growth expectations.

Risk factors: 1) Downside risks: continuous risks of macroeconomic, consumption, and advertising market growth; profit growth beyond expectations under expansion; industry competition, especially competition with Internet media, exceeds expectations; financial quality worsens than expected; short-term needs are longerTime to lift the ban pressure.

2) Upside risks: The economy is picking up, and the ad placement is higher than expected, the company’s high operating leverage brings profits, and it is estimated that it will be repaired quickly.

Earnings forecast and investment advice: Considering the company’s weak revenue growth, competition with the Internet media in a weak environment, and the rigidity of costs, the price rises, we cut the company 2019?
2021 revenue forecast to 13.1 billion / 14.5 billion / 15.6 billion (previous value) is 13.6 billion / 15.1 billion / 16.3 billion), cut it down in 2019?
The net profit attributable to mothers in 2021 is forecast to 23.

300 million / 33.

200 million / 37.

600 million (previous value was 32.

600 million / 44.

500 million / 51.

2 ppm), corresponding to 2019?
In 2021, PE 30x / 21x / 19x, the company’s long-term competitiveness and investment value will not change, maintaining the “hold” rating.

In our view, the company’s scale is still the entrance to offline core traffic. The two major competitive advantages of the trapezoidal media resource network and sales network are still significantly leading the industry, which is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of downstream consumer industries in the long run.The company’s media value is still our long-term strategic bullish target.

At the same time, due to the lagging of the relative economic recovery of advertising and the contraction of the new economy, competition is not as good as Internet media in the context of weak delivery. With the higher revenue base in 2018 and the rapid rise in costs, it is expected that the company’s revenue in 2019 will still face competition pressureNeed to pay attention to the risk of short-term performance growth than expected.

Anxin Strategy-Explaining How Foreign Estimated Aesthetic Views-Good, but Expensive-

Anxin’s strategy: Explain in detail how foreign estimated aesthetics treats “good, but expensive”?

[Anxin Strategy]Foreigners’ growth stocks are estimated to be aesthetic-and answer how to treat “good, but expensive”?

  Chen Guolin Rongxiong Chen Guo A-share strategy Foreign growth stocks are estimated to be aesthetic-and answer how to treat “good, but expensive”?

  Anxin Strategy 2019.

4.

4 ■ Risk Warning: Economic growth is lower than expected; exchange rate increases; US stocks decline Before the article begins, we would like to briefly report to investors a trend and a case that will be focused on.

  One trend is that foreign interest in the area of A-share growth is increasing.

  MSCI announced on March 1 this year that MSCI announced that it would increase the weight of Chinese A shares in the MSCI index and increase the corresponding factor of Chinese A shares from 5% to 20% in three steps.

According to our observations, in May this year, China ‘s GEM large-cap A-shares (12) will be divided by a 10% exception factor, and in November, the mid-cap A-shares (including eligible GEM stocks will be divided by a 20% division factor).15), which shows that foreign countries are paying more and more attention to the area of A-share growth. It is believed that the right to speak for growing companies will also increase in the future.

  A case, let’s review the story of Hengrui Medicine in 2017 together.

  In 2017, there was a serious difference between the judgments of the state agencies and foreign countries on Hengrui Medicine.

Among the listed pharmaceutical companies in 2017, Hengrui Medicine (600276.

SH) Every year at the beginning of 24.

41 yuan rose to 44.

31 yuan, an increase of 81.

52%, the highest market value exceeded 200 billion yuan, and Hisun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600267.

SH) Conservative period from 13.

15 yuan rose to 15.

14 yuan, an increase of only 15.

13%.

During this period, at the end of 2016, the shares held by institutional investors in China Stock Connect accounted for the circulating capital7.

99%, fund and securities companies hold 5 respectively.

47% and 0.

81%, at this time the company’s price-earnings ratio has reached a high 42.

24x.

However, when the momentum of sustainable growth was good in 2017, domestic institutions began to significantly reduce their holdings after the company exceeded 100 billion yuan in market value. At the end of 2017, the proportion of funds and securities companies holding shares was only 5.

47% and 0.

81%, while foreign countries increased their positions significantly to 12.

51%, earnings nearly doubled.

  In this case, when Hengrui Medicine was estimated to have a relatively high absolute value in 2017, domestic institutions and exchanges made different decisions, indicating that there is a difference in the estimation of aesthetics between domestic institutions and growing companies with foreign capital.

In fact, we noticed that Hengrui Pharmaceutical’s estimates have never been cheaper. The lowest growth rate of corporate P / E ratio in the past 5 years is 34.

02x, far beyond the acceptable range of ordinary value investors. At the end of 2017, the price-earnings ratio reached 65.

03x, the highest price-earnings ratio during the period was even as high as 90.

47x.

At the same time, Hengrui Medicine is indeed the leading high-quality company for innovative drugs in China. In 2016, 2017 and 2018, scientific research expenditures accounted for 10% of operating income.

68%, 12.

71% and 15.

33%, outstanding leading industry average.

“Nice, but expensive” has become a key issue affecting Hengrui Pharmaceutical’s investment value.  Therefore, from the process of doubling the market value of Hengrui Pharmaceutical from foreign countries in 2017, we believe that the unique aesthetics of the growth companies behind it are worth digging. How to treat the “good, expensive” issue of high-quality growth companies is even more worthy of us.To think deeply, this is also the question here to try to explore and answer.

Specifically, we will take US stocks as the research object and focus on the following questions: 1. From history to the present, what is the rule of the US stock market’s preference for growing companies?

What’s the direction in some areas?

  2. From the perspective of the life cycle and innovation model, how can US stock investors grasp the best time and method for investing in growing companies?

  3. How to understand and deal with the “good but expensive” problem of high-quality growth companies?

  4. Combining the present and the future, how will foreign countries plan for the growth of A shares?

  Core officials: 1. Throughout the history of US stocks, although the preferences of US stocks are changing, growth is still the most important direction.

Currently the most popular medical and software fields in the US stock market.

Among them, in the past year, some stocks in the medical and bio-industry of the US stocks have risen surprisingly.

The top 10 stocks in the U.S. stock market have the largest increase of 5 seats in the medical industry, of which the Diabetes Care Co., Ltd. (TNDM) in the healthcare equipment and service industry.

O) Company to 1525.

The amazing increase of 19% ranks first.

Furthermore, we sorted the performance of U.S. stocks over the past year. We noticed that the top 100 stocks with the largest gains are highly concentrated in the industry, and the top five sectors with the largest gains accounted for 71% of the total, which are pharmaceutical, biotechnology andLife sciences (30%), healthcare equipment and services (16%), software and services (13%), technical hardware and equipment (6%) and energy (6%) industries.

Not sharp, the growth industries that investors are most concerned about in the past year are medicine, computer and electronics.

We expanded the number of stocks to 500. The top five industries with the largest increases were software and services (17%), pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life medicine (17%), healthcare equipment and services (10%), and technical hardware.With equipment (7%) and retail (5%) industries.

We noticed that the distribution of the top 500 industries in the past year was roughly the same as that of the top 100 industries. The medical and biotechnology industries are heating up.

  2. The balance between business model and time cost is the key to deal with the problem.

How to balance the issue between business model and time cost?

We believe that discount logic can be used and that the current reasonable price-earnings ratio should be based on future earnings expectations and investor expectations.

We have noticed that the profits of companies in the initial stage of listing and the estimated growth rate transition gradually and gradually become stable. This is mainly due to the return to rational estimates in the face of overcoming gradual and stable profit expectations. Therefore, the discounted free cash flow model is more practical in practice.It is difficult to achieve, but the thinking method of calculating reasonable present value through expected future discounting is worth replacing.

In order to balance the relationship between business models and time costs, we use discounting logic, where time costs can be reflected by investors’ expected returns.

Therefore, a reasonable P / E ratio should be based on future earnings expectations and investor expectations.

Specifically, we explain from the initial formula.

Taking the pharmaceutical and biological industry as an example, the current market industry’s overall market earnings restructuring33.

07x, the median historical P / E ratio of the industry is 37.

20 times, so we have the return 4 that investors expect.

00% and N years after the projected 25 earnings forecast.

According to the results, if the newly listed pharmaceutical and biological industry can achieve a net profit growth rate of 20% every year and is expected to stabilize after 3 years, the current reasonable price-earnings ratio should be about 38x.

By comparison, the current estimates for the pharmaceutical and biological industries are still low.

  3. The growth of foreign-invested A-shares, the short-term focus on MSCI, and the mid-to-long term of 50 and the small and medium board index are preferred.

In the short term, focus on MSCI’s 27 GEM stocks and mid-cap growth stocks.

Twelve GEM large-cap stocks currently have only four or five months of additional allocation, with a separation ratio of 10%, which may lead to rapid allocation of exchanges in the short term.

The 168 mid-cap A shares, including 15 GEM stocks, need to be increased to 20% in November, and short-term recommendations are given priority attention.

In the medium and long term, with Taiwan and South Korea as examples, leading industries with a multinational layout are preferred. Leading companies are preferred. It is recommended to pay attention to the pharmaceutical, communications, computer, electronics and other industries, focusing on companies with priority to create 50 and small and medium board indexes.

  Text 1.
From history to the present: the most ideal medical and software fields in the current US stock market1.

1.
Throughout history, the field of growth is still the most superior direction of US stocks. Throughout the history of US stocks, although the preferences of US stocks are changing, growth is still the most important direction.

From the perspective of the history of U.S. stocks, the U.S. stock market has three major periods: the start-up and take-off period (late 18th century-1929), the standardized development period (1929-1954), and the modern investment period (1954-2017).

Among them, the modern investment period includes the growth stage (1954-1972), the consolidation and turbulence stage (1972-1981), and the new stage (1982-2019).
In these three stages, foreign investment in US stocks is higher than at the same time, showing the characteristics of alternating growth and value, but growth is still the main direction.

  1.
1.

1.
(1954-1971), the US stock market replaced growth stocks supported by nominal concepts, but the US stock market was not expected to be high, with an average price-earnings ratio of 16.

43, median 17.

45.

The main characteristics of the U.S. economy during this period were low inflation and high growth. It was a golden period of post-war economic development in the United States. The U.S. economy entered a rapid development channel. By the 1960s, the U.S. economy was facing new challenges. The government ‘s huge fiscal deficit, inflation, and internationalProblems such as imbalanced revenue and expenditure eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the depreciation of the US dollar, and the first oil crisis in 1973.

During the same period, the U.S. stock market also experienced a period of crazy investment growth (a total of four waves, a wave of technology and electronics stocks, a wave of mergers and acquisitions investment, a wave of conceptual stock investment, a “pretty 50” wave, and a PE ratio experienced four peaks, respectively:21, 1961.

15 times 18 in 1964.

73 times, 18 of 1968.

14 times, 19, 1972.

11 times).

At this stage, the SP500 stock index increased by 194.

18%, average price-earnings ratio of 16.

The main characteristic of the estimate is 43 times, with a low starting point (PE10.

17 times), four peaks (21 times, 19 times, 18 times, 19 times).

  ● In the late 1950s and early 1960s, a “high-tech frenzy” appeared. The traditional industry’s 5-10 times price-earnings ratio was replaced by 50-1000 times. Among them, the representative company Texas Instruments occupied 25 dollars from January 1958.Soared to $ 250 in May 1960; Xerox rose from $ 160 to as much as $ 1,340 during the period from March 1963 to June 1966; Syngenta’s share of the company was only 6 months in the second half of 1963Within $ 100 quickly rose to $ 570.

  ● Investors may abandon the traditional theory of predicting future cash flows in the mid-to-late 1960s and create profitable growth through the process of acquiring companies.

For example in 1963?
In 1968, the acquisition and operation of automatic sprinkler companies increased by more than 14 times, which caused the company’s price-earnings ratio to reach more than 50 times in 1967, which increased from about $ 8 in 1963 to 73 in 1967.

$ 62.

  1.

1.

2.
In the consolidation and turbulence stage, preference is given to the “Beautiful 50” as the core of consumer growth companies. In the second stage, the consolidation and turbulence stage (1972-1981), foreign exchange replaces growth stocks with consumption growth as the core.9.

34, median 9.

55.

During this period, the US stock market was in the same turbulent and consolidation phase as the US economy. After the SP500 index fell to a low of 63, it hovered around 100 points for a long time. After the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell to a low point of 580 points, it also remained at about 800 points for a long time.

The outbreak of the oil crisis in 1973 caused the United States to experience a 10-year period of depreciation of the US dollar. The consumer price index increased by more than 50% throughout the 1970s, and the US economy entered a stage of stagnation.

Inflation has severely hit the stock market, leading to an estimated center during this period that is significantly lower than the historical average, with an average price-earnings ratio of SP500 of only 9.

34 times, the main feature of the estimate is the W-type change. In 1976, there was a short-term bull market rise in the estimated level. However, because the US economy has not improved, the estimate has dropped rapidly.

(PE is 19 times, 7 times, 13 times, 8 times, 10 times respectively).

  ● In the early 1970s, institutional investors stopped pursuing exciting concept stocks and scrambled to buy and hold stocks of well-known companies that could grow steadily for a long time, forming the famous “Beautiful 50” such as General Electric, Polaroid, Coca-Cola, McDonald ‘sstock.

Between July 1970 and December 1972, MGIC Investment Corporation and McDonald’s yield increased the most, reaching 673, respectively.

3% and 585.

4%; at its highest point in 1972, the Morgan guaranteed trust portfolio had the highest P / E ratio of 90.

7 times, the average price-earnings ratio of the entire portfolio is as high as 41.

9 times.

  1.
1.

3.
In the new stage, a new stage of high-tech, Internet-centric growth companies (from 1982 to the present), U.S. stocks prefer high-tech growth stocks. During this period, U.S. stock returns have risen, and the average P / E ratio is 18.

27, with a median of 17.

74.

The absolute inflation rate and long-term economic growth have created conditions for the long-term prosperity of the stock market after 1982.
After a five-year bull market that began in 1982, the price-earnings ratio rose from 10 times to twenty two
times. By the time the US stock market crashed in 1987, the Dow Jones index fell 508 points within a day.

In order to avoid a serious crisis, the Federal Reserve stepped in quickly. In 1989, the Dow Jones Industrial Index hit a record high and began a ten-year bull market.

In the 1990s, the most noticeable was the estimated bubble of technology stocks. The market gradually shifted from supportive growth to irrational prosperity. Around 2000, the SP500’s price-earnings ratio reached a record high of 30 times.

After the collapse of the “Science and Technology Network Bubble”, the Fed intervened, and the S & P 500 rose to nearly 1,600 in 2007.

A financial crisis subsequently broke out across the globe.

In order to cope with the financial crisis, the global expansion led by the US Federal Reserve in 2010 helped restore confidence in the market through a series of expansionary monetary means, and the US stock market also began to have the longest bull market in history.

  ● In the early 1980s, the rise of bioengineering stocks, people saw breakthroughs in the research of genetic engineering-based biotechnology and anticancer drugs, thinking that “the era of biotechnology is coming.”

Speculative growth companies may sell for 50 times earnings in the 1960s, but some biotech stocks may sell for 50 times earnings in the 1980s.

The rapid development of biotechnology in this period also attracted a large number of VCs to join, the investment amount from less than half a million dollars in 1980 to more than six times in 1987, resulting in many famous pharmaceutical companies such as Amgen, the leader in the American pharmaceutical industry today.

  ● In the 1990s, with the advent of the “.com” Internet era, technology stocks strengthened, and the NASDAQ index rose from about 500 points in 1991 to 5000 points in 2000.

Among them, the representative company Cisco System (Cisco System) was implemented from October 1990 to March 2000 after restoration.

From $ 01 to $ 82.

  ● In the first decade of the 21st century, U.S. stocks have been connected to the nearby Internet. The Internet bubble burst and the impact of the financial crisis. Investors in the market replaced value stocks once.US stocks also have the opportunity to start the longest bull market in history.

In this round of bull markets, the Nasdaq as a representative of growing companies performed significantly better than the Dow Jones Industrial Index. During this period, investors chose high-tech companies such as Alphabet, Facebook, etc., such as semiconductors, electric vehicles and the Internet.

We observe with the Russell 1000 growth and value stock indexes. After the burst of the US stock market bubble in the early 21st century, the value stock index has been an absolute leader. After 2009, the growth stocks continued to strengthen and completed the countermeasures in 16 years.The transcendence of value stocks shows that although the preferences of US stocks are changing, growth is still the most important direction.

  From the above combing, we find that from a historical perspective, there are mainly two types of companies preferred by the US stock market. One is a good-value company, which is usually located at a mature stage. Profits maintain stable growth. Investors can pay dividends for a long period of time.Concentrated in petroleum, automotive, finance and public utilities industries; one is a good growth company, usually in the growth stage, the profit shows a sustained high growth, the company has huge growth space, mainly concentrated in pharmaceuticals, telecommunications and computers and other high-Technology.

In history, the change of US stock preferences is mainly closely related to the background of the times, policy mechanisms, industrial transformation, investor behavior and industry cycles.

Among them, the era background and policy mechanism will determine the attributes of emerging industries, industrial transformation and industry cycles will determine the industry’s prospects, and investor behavior will affect the timeliness of the industry in the capital market.

Specifically, from the current point of view, we believe that this is a continuous replacement of investor growth and investment in the US stock market, and investors have a strong interest in emerging industries.
We divide emerging industries into three categories (new technology industrialization industry, optimization and transformation of traditional industry and social welfare industry industrialization industry), which respectively correspond to the current US stock investment hotspot industries.

We will analyze it in detail in the next chapter.

  ● Industrialization of new technologies (software, information technology and other industries).

Since 2010, through the rapid development of smartphones and 4G and 5G communication technologies, the software and information technology industries have gradually expanded from the original PC to mobile phones. In the first 10 years of the 21st century, companies such as Amazon and Facebook have gradually attracted attention.Entering the mature stage; companies involved in emerging technologies such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things, and mobile payments are also exploring new growth models, such as Oracle and PAYPAL.

  ● Emerging transformation of traditional industries (Internet sales, media, financial industry, clean new energy and other industries).

Shopping, media, financial security, and automobiles are inseparable from our lives, but the traditional model seems to have been unable to meet our needs. Technological advancements have enabled new formats such as Internet shopping, streaming media, blockchain finance, and new energy vehicles to fully develop.Two related companies such as Netflix and Tesla have grown rapidly in the past decade.

  ● Industrialization of social welfare (medical services, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences).

The fields of health, medical care and health are getting more and more attention, and emerging technologies have also penetrated into the pharmaceutical industry. Nanotechnology, surgical robots, artificial intelligence medical equipment, etc. have also allowed the pharmaceutical industry to develop by leaps and bounds.

For example, Seattle Genetics Corporation (SGEN) is committed to researching ways to treat cancer. The company’s operating profit has been negative, but investors are confident about its future development.

  1.

2.
Standing in the present, medical, software and new finance are the most ideal growth areas for US stocks1.

2.

1.
In recent years, the top ten U.S. U.S. stocks have the highest proportion of TCM: Take Tandem as an example. In the past year, some U.S. stocks in the medical and biotechnology industries have risen dramatically.
The top 10 stocks in the U.S. stock market have the largest increase of 5 seats in the medical industry, of which the Diabetes Care Co., Ltd. (TNDM) in the healthcare equipment and service industry.

O) Company to 1525.

The amazing increase of 19% ranks first.

Furthermore, we sorted the performance of U.S. stocks over the past year. We noticed that the top 100 stocks with the largest gains are highly concentrated in the industry, and the top five sectors with the largest gains accounted for 71% of the total, 杭州夜网 which are pharmaceutical, biotechnology andLife sciences (30%), healthcare equipment and services (16%), software and services (13%), technical hardware and equipment (6%) and energy (6%) industries.

Not sharp, the growth industries that investors are most concerned about in the past year are medicine, computer, electronics and so on.

We expanded the number of stocks to 500. The top five industries with the largest increases were software and services (17%), pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life medicine (17%), healthcare equipment and services (10%), and technical hardware.With equipment (7%) and retail (5%) industries.

We noticed that the distribution of the top 500 industries in the past year was roughly the same as that of the top 100 industries. The medical and biotechnology industries are heating up.

  We have the best increase in the past year.
O) as an 武汉夜生活网 example.

In the past year, the increase during this period reached a staggering 1525.

19%.

First of all, compared to early 18 years 2.

The sustainable price of 54 USD / share has reached 2622 in advance today.

05%, in just 502 trading days, corporate stocks have turned around 26 times, with an average daily increase of 0.

8%.

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc.
It mainly provides insulin pumps and other products for diabetics. The company has been in a long-term replacement state. The net profit of the company in 2016, 17 and 18 was -0.

83 billion, -0.

7.3 billion and -1.

$ 2.3 billion.

However, we also noticed that the R & D expenses in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2017 were 0.

16 billion, 0.

17 billion, 0.

19 billion, 0.

2.1 billion and 0.

US $ 2.9 billion, with R & D expenses growing at an annual rate of 41 in 2018.

46%, operating income reached 1.

US $ 8.4 billion, an increase of 70 from the previous year.

88%.

The t: slim X2 pump developed by the company is currently the thinnest and lightest type of durable insulin pump in the market.

Of the 50,000 Animas diabetes users, about 3,000 are new to Tandem.

As the company’s current international market revenue of USD 9.67 million accounts for only 5% of its revenue, compared with the worldwide diabetes medical expenditures of USD 727 billion in 2017, there is huge potential in the international market. The US stock market is committed to future revenue and profit.There are high expectations.

  1.

2.

2.
Market transaction characteristics: Information technology attention is still high From the perspective of transaction volume, the information technology industry and medical care are both at a high level.

In the past year, the industries with the largest share of transaction volume in the US stock market were information technology (27.

08%), optional consumption (20.

98%), health care (11.

06%), finance (10.
43%) and industrial (9.

(08%), due to the overlapping of the number of shares and market value of different sectors covered by different industries, the information technology and optional consumption are still replaced after calculating and sorting the numerical transaction amount of each industry unit, which are 2 respectively.

23 dollars and 1.

$ 74.

  From the perspective of transaction volume growth, the information technology industry has grown significantly in the past 18 years.

The trading volume of U.S. stocks in 18 years showed an overall growth trend. Among them, the activeness of transactions in emerging industries increased significantly. The information technology industry’s trading volume was 111,928 compared with 17 years.

$ 6.2 billion increases by 50 each year.

06%, optional consumption 91,632 over the previous year.

$ 9.8 billion increased by 42.

26%, public utilities, industrial and healthcare industries increased by 35.
63%, 25.

35% and 20.

twenty three%.

  1.

2.

3.
From an IPO perspective, new finance is expected to become a focus of attention in the future.

Emerging market corporate investors have grown rapidly, but the replacement from the industrial chain to the capital market usually requires a reduction.

Therefore, the short-term rapid rise and successful realization of IPO companies may be the focus of future investors’ attention.

We have noticed that the number of IPOs restructured by financial companies has increased, and the number of IPOs in the financial industry has soared from 63 in 2014 to 130 in 2018.

Among them, listed companies are mainly distributed in the new financial field, that is, financial information dataization, financial service Internetization, and intelligent financial decision-making.

At the same time, the number of IPOs in the healthcare industry has gradually picked up in the past two years after a decline in growth in 2016. In 2016, 2017 and 2018, the number of IPOs was 69, 70, and 105, respectively.Demand is still strong, so the heat in the healthcare industry is expected to continue.

In addition, the number of IPOs in the optional consumer and information technology industries has changed little in recent years. The number of IPOs in the energy, daily consumption and utility industries has decreased year by year. The number of IPOs in the telecommunications service industry has decreased due to industry characteristics and high technical barriers.

  2.
Estimating the Premium: Judging Based on Life Cycle and Innovation Models, Why Do US Stocks Prefer Growth Stocks?

It is because growing companies can get higher estimated premiums.

Therefore, how to look at the optimal investment timing of a growing company from the life cycle of the enterprise is particularly critical.

Since 2010, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has risen from 10,428.

05 rose to 26,026.

At 32 points, the range rose to 149.

58%, while the Nasdaq rose 234 in the same range.

72%.

The price-earnings ratio of the Dow Jones Index fell briefly to about 20x from 2011 to 2013, and then gradually stabilized, and reached a high of 40x and 60x in 2017-2018.

Judging from the relative ratio of the growth company’s estimated stock market earnings ratio, the assessment level of growth companies has been further improved since 2014, and the price-to-earnings ratio of relative value stocks has remained at about 2 times.

As of March 2019, the Nasdaq’s price-earnings ratio has reached 34.

82x, Dow Jones Industrial Average 16

58x, relative P / E ratio is 2 on average.

10 times.

  2.

1. Life cycle: the best time to invest when high-speed revenue growth. From the perspective of the life cycle of a company, a growing company will transform its life cycle from the growth stage to the mature stage, and eventually to aging.

Correspondingly, the growth estimate premium reverses with the life cycle of the company.

Generally speaking, for the start-up growth company, the overall fundamentals of all future growth in general; after entering the growth phase, part of it comes from existing assets, mainly from future growth; and then to the mature period, more from existing assets; After a gradual decline, fundamental estimates are based entirely on existing assets.

Further observation of the composition of the estimate, mainly includes two parts: the basic estimate and the estimated premium.

Among them, the basic estimate comes from existing assets; the estimated premium mainly comes from two aspects: one is the growth premium based on the company’s future growth expectations, and the other is due to the asymmetry of information and the blind pursuit of funds.The premium, also known as the estimated bubble.

In the start-up period of the company, due to factors such as lack of alternatives and asymmetric information, investors expect the company to grow better in the future. At this stage, it is estimated that the bubble is greater than the growth premium. If there is no alternative, the bubble will always exist.; As the company enters the growth stage, due to the addition of competitors and investors’ better understanding of the company’s situation, the growth premium growth rate has changed, and the estimated bubble has decreased. At this stage, the growth premium may exceed the estimated value bubble.; When the enterprise enters the mature period and the recession period, the estimated bubble and estimated premium decrease at the same time, and gradually become reasonable.

  Eight of the top ten U.S. companies in the 1990s could be considered growth companies (IBM, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Intel, Pfizer, Philip Morris, Procter & Gamble, and Walmart) have gradually enteredMaturity.

Let’s take Microsoft as an example. In the 24 years from 1975 to 1998, Microsoft entered a high-speed growth period and sales revenue increased by 90%.

50,000 times, with an average annual growth of 120.

2%; by 1999, Microsoft had a market value of more than 500 billion U.S. dollars, and when the stocks were listed in 1987, the profit increased by a factor of 38 and reached a 300-fold increase.

In terms of relative estimates, at the peak of the Nasdaq bubble at the end of 1999, Microsoft’s assessment reached 83 times PE, and at the end of 1990 it was estimated that the level of 10 times PE increased 7 times.

With the rise of the Internet, computers have gradually expanded, and the sales growth of Microsoft, mainly software services, has gradually declined after 2000. Although huge investments have been maintained in the market and scientific research fields, marginal revenue has clearly increased, and it has gradually enteredAt maturity, this can be confirmed by its profitability.

From 1987 to 2004, Microsoft ‘s ROE was close to 150% and the lowest was 30%. From 2004 to 2016, it was basically maintained at a level of 20-30%. The annualized net profit could grow at about 30%, even in 2009 and 2012.Every year, 2015 saw negative growth.
Therefore, even if Microsoft’s market value hits another record high and exceeded 650 billion U.S. dollars, PE is only about 30 times PE, a drop of more than 60% from its historical peak.

  Not sharp out, investment growth stocks should hold the company firmly in the growth stage.

Therefore, we recommend that intervention is the most appropriate time when the revenue of growing companies is growing rapidly.

When we review many cases of US stocks, we can see that investors are continuously reducing their assessment of current performance indicators and are increasing their tolerance for future profit realization. Revenue growth has become a necessary condition for the rise of high-quality growth companies.

In particular, growth companies are mostly in the start-up or introduction period of the industry’s life stage during the listing stage. Enterprises have been in a long-term state mainly because of rapid market expansion and cost surges, but because of their industry advantages or their own development potential, investorsThe ability to help turn a profit into a profit is full of expectations.

For example, we are familiar with the cases of Tesla, JD.com and Amazon.

  Furthermore, we use Apple as an example to judge the best time for growth companies to invest.

  From the perspective of the enterprise life cycle, Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has entered the mature stage of the enterprise life cycle.

O) is one of the most suitable targets for observation.

Throughout the development process of the enterprise throughout its life cycle, the company has repeatedly fallen from high growth to low levels, but has repeatedly found new growth momentum through research and development and opening up new markets. Revenue and net profit have regained an upward trend.Drive up market size and estimated levels.

Looking further, after Apple launched IPod products in 2001, the revenue growth in 01-02 showed a significant improvement from the previous quarter. After the third-generation IPod became an explosive product in 2003, the company continued to increase significantly in 2004. At the same time,With the rapid growth of profits that year, this is also a historical turning point for Apple to become the world’s largest market capitalization technology company.

It can be seen that when a growth company launches a new product and can successfully occupy market share and use its operating income to continue to grow, investors should start paying attention to the company’s investment value.

  ● Apple’s expectation at the beginning of the listing was about 0.

About $ 5, 1990?
During 1997, Apple was embedded in the boundary, and the average income growth rate was less than 2%. From mid 1993 to the end of 1995, it fluctuated around 1 dollar. In 1997, Apple fell to the bottom of the significant negative growth, and the stock price returned to 1The level below the US dollar; the increase in gross profit margin during this period has exacerbated the company’s crisis.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that at this stage, Apple’s estimated level has continued to decline, and the market value scale has basically stopped.

  ● But Jobs returned in 1997 and launched the iMac in 1998. Investors were full of confidence in Apple’s prospects. The stock price once rose to $ 4 in 2000; it was subsequently affected by the dotcom bubble and the stock was sluggish.Outbreak.

However, the new growth points quickly regained investors’ confidence. The introduction of the iPod in 2001 allowed the company to continue to grow from 2004. After the advent of the iPhone in 2007, Apple Corps regained its vitality, revenue growth began to rise sharply, and new productsThe bargaining power also ensures that the gross margin level continues to rise.

Driven by this, Apple’s estimated level and estimated premium relative to the market have regained upside momentum, and its market value has also expanded 63 times during this period.

The company’s latest series of mobile phones, iPhoneXs and Xr series, have been criticized by consumers for their lack of innovation capabilities. The lower than expected operating income has caused investors to doubt the company’s future development.

It is possible that similar incidents occurred in 2012 (iPhone5) and 2015 (iPhone6s).

2.

2.
Innovation model: Innovations with a certain industrial foundation enjoy more overestimation and recognition In emerging technology areas where growth companies are mainly concentrated, there are two types of innovation models. One is a form of innovation based on a certain industry, such as new energy vehicles, consumer electronics,Mobile Internet and new media, etc .; the other is research results or products found in completely new fields, such as gene coding, shale oil technology, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence.

In the comparison of the two forms, it is found that in the U.S. stock market, the former is usually more highly recognized and its investment income is countless.

  Let us take Netflix, which opens up a new world of network streaming media, and FTSE, which focuses on “cloud computing,” as examples to illustrate this point.

  As the leader of global streaming media, Netflix (NFLX) currently has a total market value of more than 160 billion U.S. dollars and a price-earnings ratio of 130x. The highest increase since 2011 has been nearly 30 times, and the increase since 2016 has exceeded 300%.
In fact, Netflix was originally a company that started by providing mail DVD rental services. In 2007, it saw that Netflix was rushing into the streaming media industry and it was the first company to get involved in streaming media.

Over the past ten years, Netflix has integrated a large amount of data storage capabilities and accurate video recommendation algorithms to maintain users and achieve rapid growth in revenue and profits.

Since 2011, the company’s operating income has increased year by year, from 32 in 2011.

$ 0.5 billion increased to 157 in 2018.

$ 9.4 billion.

Netflix’s net profit is also growing rapidly, especially in 2013 when it realized a net profit1.

$ 1.2 billion, an increase of 555% per year.

It increased to 12 in 2018.

US $ 1.1 billion, an increase of 117% over ten years.

  Behind the rapid growth of Netflix for many years, the company is able to grasp the streaming media business and accurately cater to the public’s aesthetic preferences on the basis of traditional media.

The rise of Netflix is actually a combination of the new media industry and the traditional media industry.

In the traditional media industry in the United States, including 21st Century Fox, Disney, Time Warner, etc., the essence of these companies is mainly to operate content.

Netflix also has not departed from the traditional media industry’s content-centric business model, and has continuously increased its head on exclusive high-quality copyright content.

In 2013, the original script “House of Cards” was launched, which became a hit because the number of users of the company’s users increased by more than 2 million people, breaking the 30 million mark in one fell swoop.

In 2018, Netflix’s works were shortlisted for a total of 112 Emmys, a record high.
  When we look back at FTSE, we will find that although the estimated premium is higher, the high-estimation recognition is not as good as Netflix.

As a cloud service company that pre-merged and served the world, SALESFORCE transformed into the advent of the 5G era. With the explosive demand for cloud computing services in emerging industries such as the Internet of Things and autonomous driving, Salesforce represents the “cloud service””The industry has ushered in an explosion.

Judging from the Salesfoce report, the company’s operating income is increasing year by year, but the company’s net profit is still increasing, mainly due to its higher cost of obtaining customer information and promotion costs.

Since 2010, the company’s operating income has increased from 13.

$ 0.6 billion increased to 132.

USD 8.2 billion, with an annual compound intensity of 29.

85%.

As a SaaS company that has maintained good growth, investors are confident about its future. Its market value is currently around 125 billion US dollars, and the price-earnings ratio is 110 times. Since 2013, it has been growing at a rate of about 5 times.About 2 times.
  3.
“Good, but expensive”: the balance between business model and time cost3.

1.
How do US stocks measure fundamental estimates of growing companies?

  3.

1.

1.
The use of US stocks in growth stock estimation methods is more diversified US stocks’ use of PS in growth stocks is worthy of attention.

Because the growth stock’s net profit level usually fluctuates greatly, and sometimes changes, it is difficult to accurately measure the company’s assessment under PE and PEG estimates. Moreover, growth stocks have their own characteristics due to their inherent business models, which also determines the need for multiple estimates.Coordination of indicators.

  Kenneth Fisher (Little Fisher) put forward the dialectical relationship between the operating income, profit and growth of growth stocks in the book “Super Strong Stocks”, saying that “Young companies often experience reduced profits as they move towards maturity.However, this does not mean that the value of the company has increased significantly.

The best young company leaders will strive to improve after making mistakes. The scale may be larger than the first time in a few years. The core lies in the ability to maintain sales.

As long as sales volume picks up in time, profits will continue to fall and pick up in the future, “he said.

Therefore, he believes that operating income is more representative of the dynamic development of growth stocks.

That is to say, for growth stocks, the phenomenon of profit growth is very common, but the phenomenon of shift in turnover growth is rare, so the turnover is usually more stable than most other variables of the enterprise, and it is measured by the market salesEstimates are more valuable in the long run.

Further on the scale of market-to-sales ratio, the significance is how much the stock market is willing to pay for the company’s 1 yuan operating income.

If the market-to-sales ratio is low, it means that the cost paid for sales revenue is high.

According to Kenneth Fisher, the sales ratio is below zero.
75 stocks can be bought, more than 1.

5 will never touch, at 3.

0-6.

Sell between 0.

It seems that although the P / S ratio is not outstanding for the short-term net profit of growth stocks, but the net profit is negative for a long time, even if the P / S ratio is low, there is no investment value.

Therefore, the market-to-sales ratio requires that the fundamentals of growth stocks should not be too bad, and the company’s net profit can grow in the foreseeable future.

  In addition, compared with another important indicator PE, PS has other advantages in the estimation of growth stocks.

For example, predicting future income is less difficult than operating income; the price does not include the expected discount on operating income; sales income has a lower probability than the income accounting estimate.

In summary, we believe that profitability does not fully reflect the future value of growth stocks, and revenue is a useful supplement in this regard.

Those growth stocks that have achieved large-scale profits are often well-known and sought after by the people.

Through the P / S ratio, perhaps we can find future super strong stocks from those companies that lose money in the short term.

From the perspective of merging A shares, the PS estimation method has reached a sufficient estimate again because the market-to-sales ratio does not reflect the difference in cost structure between different companies, but more importantly because of the current investor’s attention and sensitivity for profit.Much greater than operating income.

  The market research rate can reflect the market value of the company’s research and development, and is an important supplement to the growth index.

The growth industry dominated by the information industry must take technology research and development as the core endogenous driving force for its own development.

At the same time, increasing innovation and strengthening the endogenous needs of dual technology companies to strengthen competitiveness are also important signs of successful technology companies.

Therefore, we should fully consider the impact of R & D when considering growth stock estimates.

Kenneth Fisher (Little Fisher) in his book “Super Strong Stocks” proposed the market value of company research and development using market research rate (PRR), that is, the company’s input divided by the past 12 months of research expenditures.

When the PRR value is possible, it may indicate that the company is developing many new products and is about to generate significant growth stocks.
When the PRR value is too high, it may indicate that the company has not spent enough R & D expansion to ensure continued competitiveness to make future performance more beautiful.

At the same time, Kenneth Fisher believes not to buy companies with a PRR higher than 15, and at the same time tap growth stocks with a PRR between 5-20.

Obviously, in view of A shares, PRR is only an important supplement to growth stock evaluation indicators, not a core indicator. It is wrong to excessively pursue accurate PRR values.

Because many R & D expenditures do not create value, subjective scores for the capitalization of R & D expenditures and the proportion of expense expenditures are too high, which will lead to low PRR values as an attractive trap.

  3.

1.

2.
“Hidden Champion” and “Red Sea Competition” means: The market share stealth champion was proposed by Herman Simon in his book “Hidden Champion”, the so-called “stealth” means that these companies are not impossible globally, Mainly due to the relatively small size of the enterprise; “champion” refers to these enterprises occupy a larger market share, have a unique competitive strategy, often in a certain segment of the market dedicated work.

Therefore, for small and sophisticated growth companies, market share is often used as a lever to continuously expand sales performance.

Specifically, small and sophisticated companies generally have a certain size and market base. The core of the estimation is to forecast the market share around the annual market share in the future, and then focus on whether the growth of sales profits will continue to be higher than the average level.
The “higher average level” is a factor that changes with time. From an absolute point of view, it is basically higher than 12% -15% per year.

For example, AMERICANGREETING, an early US stock company, achieved high-speed growth by occupying market share. Its market share for greeting cards rose from 33% to 35% during 1995-1999, but sales revenue increased by 39%, driving the company to grow significantly.

  At the same time, the estimated role of market share in the highly competitive “Red Sea” area is also very obvious.

Taking the field of smartphones as an example, looking at the continuous changes in the launch of iPhone products by Apple Inc., the market share is relevant. The company’s use of iPhone 4s and iPhone 6 reached market highs twice, and accordingly in September 2012And in September 2015, the expectations were met twice.

Among them, the expansion of iPhone4s from September 2011 to September 2011 accounted for the highest proportion of smartphone segmentation (20.

04%), an increase of 17.

75%, which may also increase by 74 compared to the previous year.

95%.

The same situation also occurred in September 14-15 September, iPhone6 gradually expanded to account for 16%.

66%, an increase of 14 per year.

21%, which may increase by 11 compared with the previous year.

35%.
  3.

1.

3.
Fundamental Estimation Model Based on Growth Stocks-Taking Graham as an Example Eswas, a Famous Estimator?

Damodaran once said that most estimates are wrong, because the information source is flawed, and it is easy to cause errors when the original data is converted into predictions. At the same time, the simpler the estimation model, the better the more complex data inputThis means that more errors may occur, leading to more complex and difficult to understand models.

At present, there are a lot of researches on the estimation models of growth stocks in the theoretical and practical circles, most of which are based on the estimation ideas contained in the early Graham estimation models.

Therefore, we mainly introduce Graham’s growth stock valuation model here.

  Graham’s intrinsic value estimation model.

According to Graham’s formula for calculating intrinsic value: both intrinsic value =[8.

5 + 2 * tension]* EPS where expansion refers to the expected displacement in the next 7 to 10 years; 8.

5 is the reasonable price-earnings ratio of the company when Graham believes that the result is zero.

Graham believes that the yield reached in the past period is higher than the replacement yield of ordinary stocks, its length remains at least 7%, and it is still expected to maintain this advantage in the future, 10 years laterRevenue doubled.

  ● Calculate the current value.

For example, if the company’s annual income is $ 1 per share and its annual growth rate is 5%, its intrinsic value is[8.

5+ (2 * 5% acceleration)]* 1 = 18.

5 USD.

It is thought that if a company’s expansion is 5%, then the growth calculated in the formula is 5 instead of 5%.

In order to be able to use Graham’s formula effectively, investors will convert the current P / E ratio to the normal current P / E ratio.

Investors must have an overall understanding of the company’s fundamentals and make corresponding adjustments based on the company’s industry cycle stage.

If the macro economy is in the recession law regulations, it is appropriate to appropriately increase the price-earnings ratio; if it is in a boom period, it is appropriate to appropriately reduce the price-earnings ratio.
  ● Calculate future value.

For growth companies, the calculation of the current internal value of expected investment activities begins, investment growth companies need to base their investment decisions on the company’s future value.

The future is full of uncertainty, and it is necessary to establish a higher range instead. If investors believe that the future expansion is 8%, investors may need to expand the expected return to 6% to 10%.

Assessing the future value of growth stocks requires the use of Graham’s calculation formula twice, once to predict the current intrinsic value, and once to recover the future intrinsic value of the enterprise.

The future intrinsic value of an exploration enterprise is mainly divided into four steps: 1) determining the company’s current earnings; 2) forecasting the company’s long-term earnings growth; 3) the company’s earnings after 7 years of earnings; 4) using the Graham formula to calculate the company’s futureIntrinsic value.

For example, investors believe that the expected future growth rate is 8% -10%. If the current potential benefit of the company is 1 dollar and the return is 8%, then the company’s return is 1 in 7 years.

$ 71; a growth rate of 10%, so the company’s annual income in 1 year is 1.

.

$ 95.

22
Multiplying the 5 times P / E ratio by earnings yields a lower limit of 38 years after the company’s intrinsic value is generated.

$ 48, capped at 43.

$ 88.

  Without sharpening out, Graham believes that the intrinsic estimation of growth stocks is determined by growth ability and profitability.

Control sample intrinsic value =[8.

5 + 2 * tension]* EPS, we find that Graham’s intrinsic value method needs to gradually roll out the average profit of a certain number of years in the future, and then multiply it by a capitalization factor.

If it is not sharp, the former is determined by profitability and the other is determined by growth ability.

Furthermore, combining P = EPS * PE, we find that Graham may describe PE as a formula for advancing.

Pointed out is 8.

5 implies the effect of the interest rate r on the estimation at that time.

According to r = 1 / PE = 1/8.
5 = 11.

76%, we earn 11 from this gain.

76%.

We found 11.

76% of the data are mainly from the high-grade bond index6 at that time.

51% + 3-year profit margin 5.

15%.

需要提醒的是由于P=D/(r-g)
、D=EPS(1-b)(1+g), ROE=EPS/B,故而:PE=(1-b)(1+g)/(r-g) Shows that the maintenance constant at b is that PE itself can express the function of interest rate and g of r, which also confirms the rationality of Graham’s intrinsic value formula.

Among them, r is the investor’s necessary return rate, g is the net profit margin, and b is the dividend ratio.

  ● Modification of estimation model: consider the interest rate factor.

Based on future expected stock valuations, the status of future interest rates must be considered.

The above estimation model did not take the interest rate factor into consideration. Graham revised the above formula at a seminar: the above intrinsic value =[8.

5 + 2 * power]* EPS * 4.

4 years.

Graham previously set the long-term profit margin at 4.

4%, Y represents the return on 20-year AAA corporate bonds.

  3.

1.4.
How to determine the margin of safety for the fundamental assessment of growth stocks?

  Graham is the originator of the margin of safety. In 1949’s The Smart Investor, he deduced the concept of margin of safety: “The difference between the price of the securities market and the value of the securities valuation reflects the security of the securities”.
In Buffett’s eyes, the ideal margin of safety is to buy a $ 1 security for 40 cents.

Buffett also describes the concept of margin of safety in terms of bearing capacity. “When you build a bridge, you firmly believe that it can bear 30,000 pounds, but you only let 10,000 pounds of trucks pass through the bridge.

This principle also applies to investments.

“Currently, the margin of safety is usually defined as the difference between the intrinsic value of a stock and its market value.

In other words, a stock trading at a price significantly lower than its intrinsic value has a broad margin of safety, and a stock trading at a price involved or above its intrinsic value does not have a safety margin.

On this basis, we obtain the formula for calculating the marginal value of safety, that is, marginal value of safety = intrinsic value * (1- marginal rate of safety).

  The safety margin is mainly related to the moat, capacity circle, pricing power and risk appetite.

According to the marginal value of safety = intrinsic value * (1- marginal rate of safety), it is not serious. The margin of safety is determined by the intrinsic value and marginal rate of safety. We believe that it is mainly related to moats, capacity circles, pricing rights and risk appetite.

In Buffett’s 2007 Letter to Shareholders, Buffett mentioned that the marginal system of safety is mainly manifested in three aspects: the moat, the circle of capabilities, and the marginal price of safety.

Among them, the moat and the ability circle are protections for the margin of safety.

Specifically, a truly great company must have a “moat” to protect the investment for a good return.

But the “dynamics” of capitalism, so any business “castle” whose energy earns high returns will be repeatedly attacked by competitors.

Therefore, an insurmountable barrier is the foundation for sustained success.

Business history is full of dazzling companies like “Roman pyrotechnics”. Their so-called “deep grooves” turned out to be just hallucinations, and they were soon crossed by opponents.

A “moat” that needs to be dug repeatedly is ultimately equal to no moat at all.

At the same time, the so-called competence circle is the degree to which investors understand the company, and they need to know where they know the boundaries of the company.

If a company is in a rapidly changing industry, the prediction of long-term business prospects is just beyond the scope.

On the basis of Buffett, we further believe that the determination of the margin of safety ratio may be related to pricing power and risk appetite.

Take CNPC as an example. After the listing of CNPC, it continued to plunge all the way, the highest price from November 5, 2007 was 48.
6 yuan to the present 7.

75 yuan.

In view of the people’s enthusiasm for PetroChina’s stocks at that time, the core reason is that investors cannot judge the true value of PetroChina in the capital market. The capital market has no pricing power in the short term, and its value is not a marginal value of safety.

Only when the market has sufficient pricing power for stocks can investors correctly determine the position of the safety margin.

In addition, in an environment with higher risk expectations, people will unconsciously lower the margin of safety and buy at a higher price.

Obviously, there is a certain relationship between the intrinsic value and the margin of safety. From the historical data, the margin of safety may decrease when the intrinsic value increases, but this view has not been fully supported by logic.

  What does the margin of safety mean for growth stocks?

For growth companies, due to the volatility breakthrough, when the market fell sharply, investors’ reaction rate could not keep up with the constant rate of change.

Therefore, we need to determine the minimum safety margin of growth stocks based on intrinsic value.

According to the marginal value of safety = intrinsic value * (1- marginal rate of safety), we believe that in the static description of the margin of safety, the intrinsic value must first be determined when determining the margin of safety, because the margin of safety is often below the lower limit of intrinsic value.

What needs to be reminded is that based on the multi-dimensional expectation of the intrinsic value, the intrinsic value is an interval rather than a certain value.

For investors, it is definitely difficult and unnecessary to judge the intrinsic value by an accurate value. As long as the intrinsic value range is compared with the market price, its relative position to the safety margin can basically be determined.

At the same time, the dynamic changes in safety margins are more complex.

First of all, the margin of safety is not static, but changes with the change of intrinsic value and marginal rate of safety. It is positively correlated with intrinsic value and negatively correlated with marginal rate of safety.

Therefore, when the benefits of an enterprise benefit from the continuous rise in its internal value support, its margin of safety will also increase; at the same time, the margin of safety will also increase under the influence of the increased risk of threats due to the reduction of the margin of safety.

It is obvious that the investment philosophy of growth stocks conflicts with the marginal safety principle to a certain extent.

Buyers of growth stocks rely on expected profitability that is greater than their previous average profitability.

When calculating security, replacing the previous profit record with the expected profit can easily lead to a higher safety margin.

  How to improve the safety margin of investment in growth stocks: Martin has always proposed in the book “How to evaluate the intrinsic value of growth stocks”: When investing in growth companies, investors must consider the three rules of establishing a safety margin: 1) understand themselvesWhat you have, that is, to understand the fundamentals of the company, the moat of the business situation, etc.

2) Forecast the future value, that is, determine a reasonable expected interval; 3) Set a reasonable minimum expected return on capital.

But in the end, there is no rigorous calculation method and formula for determining the safety margin.
We believe that having a margin of safety has certain subjectivity, that is, “safety” is different in the minds of investors; and we should avoid marginal uncertainty, that is, the determination of margins depends on predictions about the future.
There is no doubt that even if a margin of safety is found, it does not mean that there will be no duplication, because the margin of safety can only guarantee that the chance of profit is greater than the chance of conversion.

In terms of various investments, the low price-earnings ratio strategy implies protection of the margin of safety.

From the perspective of investment portfolios, as more and more types of security securities are purchased, the overall profit may be larger than the total.

After that, we briefly use Graham and Jeremy J. Shiger’s approach as a reference for the safety margin.

  ● Graham: In the company size, the safety margin is equal to the index guarantee multiple.

In 1937, “Reading the Financial Report Like Graham” explained the margin of safety, “In general, it is equal to the index protection multiple, which can be used for the benefit of the refund payment, not the ratio of the benefit to the benefit.

“For example, if the interest rate multiple is 7/4 times, then the margin of safety (in this sense) is 3/4 ÷ 7/4 = 42.

85%.

“In the beginning, the net profit of the company was 7/4, and the index was 1, so the 3/4 part was” safe “, that is, before the company could not pay interest, there was 42.

85% of the buffer space (at least in theory), which is higher than the value of interest, can be called “buffer value”.

In this sense, 1 is equivalent to the critical point of profit and loss, and the margin of safety can be obtained for parts exceeding 1.

  ● Jeremy J. Shiger: From the transaction scale, the safety margin is the historical price-earnings ratio.

Taking the beautiful 50 as an example, we use the dividend and profit situation from 1972 to 1996 and the calculation in 1997 to obtain a safe and guaranteed price-earnings ratio-a safe price-earnings ratio.

Comparing the peak estimate (the 1972 estimate) and the safety assessment, we can find that 16 out of 50 stocks are worth more than the valuations given by investors at the time.

Based on 1972 profits, Philip Morris’s P / E ratio should be 78.

2 times instead of the actual 24 times, which is undervalued by two-thirds; Coca-Cola’s P / E ratio should be more than 90, and Merck’s P / E ratio should be higher than 70.

On the whole, consumer and food industry stocks are generally undervalued, including McDonald’s, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, etc .; the actual estimates for technology stocks are too high, and IBM’s safe price-earnings ratio is 15%.

4, while the actual price-earnings ratio in 1972 dropped by 35, Xerox’s safe price-earnings ratio was 18.
3 while the actual market surplus is 45.

8.
  3.

2. How US stocks understand the high estimates of high-quality growth companies: Take “pretty 50” as an example. “Pretty 50” refers to a large number of consumer and technology-based growth companies such as Xerox, IBM, Polaroid and Coca-Cola,They became the darlings of investors in the 1960s and early 1970s.

These stocks have convincing growth and have a high market value.

It can be found that the 50 beautiful stocks mainly include pharmaceutical, electronics, food, and retail industries, but do not include steering industries such as automobiles, steel, and transportation.

From an estimation perspective, the pretty 50 estimate met expectations in 1972, with an average price-earnings ratio of 41.

9 was the double multiple of SP500 at the time. One-fifth of the stock’s P / E ratio was more than 50, and Polaroid was more than 90.

  Is the pretty 50 peak estimated to be too high?

The answer is not simple yes or no. The highest price-earnings ratio of 16 stocks is still low.

In “The Long-Term Magic of the Stock Market”, a safe and guaranteed price-earnings ratio-a safe price-earnings ratio-is calculated based on the dividends and profits of 1972-1996 and the calculation in 1997.

Comparing the peak estimate (the 1972 estimate) and the safety assessment, we can find that 16 out of 50 stocks are worth more than the investor’s valuation at the time.

Based on 1972 profits, Philip Morris’s P / E ratio should be 78.

2 times instead of the actual 24 times, which is undervalued by two-thirds; Coca-Cola’s P / E ratio should be more than 90, and Merck’s P / E ratio should be higher than 70.
On the whole, consumer and food industry stocks are generally undervalued, including McDonald’s, Pepsi, Coca-Cola, etc .; the actual estimates for technology stocks are too high, and IBM’s safe price-earnings ratio is 15%.

4, while the actual price-earnings ratio in 1972 dropped by 35, Xerox’s safe price-earnings ratio was 18.

3 while the actual market surplus is 45.

8.
  The estimated premium to continue to pay for the beautiful 50 growth during the peak period is actually not cost-effective as a whole.

The annual average growth rate of the earnings of Yimei 50 from 1972 to 1996 was 11%, which exceeded 3 copies of SP500 in the same period. The pretty 50 did have good growth.

But judging from the relationship between the price-earnings ratio and profit growth, the premium paid by investors is not rational.
In 1972, the SP500 average price-earnings ratio was 18.

9, corresponding to a profit margin of 5.

3% (reciprocal P / E ratio); beautiful 50 profit margin is 2.

4%, about 3 lower incorporation than the former.

It seems that the disadvantage of profit margin may be compensated by the higher profit maximization in the future, but in fact the over-estimated premium to make up for the beautiful 50 growth is no longer beautiful.

In short, the beautiful 50 portfolios bought at the peak have yielded almost the same as the SP500 for the next 25 years.

  3.

3. The balance between business model and time cost is the key to dealing with “good, but expensive”. The balance between business model and time cost is the core key to dealing with the problem.

As early as in the special report “Discussion on the Genes and Estimated Premium of Growing Bull Stocks”, we proposed that the most important factor in the estimated premium of growing bull stocks is the scarcity of business models, followed by a part of the industry competition pattern, and finally reflected in the companyFundamentals of business.

Therefore, when faced with a “good, but expensive” breakthrough in high-quality growth stocks, the business model became the most critical first replacement when re-examining.

When a growth company has a unique and supportable business model, it means that there is almost no connection on the business track, market development and scale expansion will become easy, there is huge room for future growth, and high valuations given by the capital marketThe premium can continue to be supported.

In a narrow sense, we can understand the business model of a growing company as its future growth.

After accurately grasping the competition and development prospects of the business model, the most important thing is to consider the time cost.

If the business model of the growing company is feasible, but the time cost is too large, the investment income will be greatly reduced.

Taking US stocks as an example, in the previous study of “Beautiful 50” of American stocks, we found that from the perspective of historical retrospection, the estimated premium for continuing to pay for the growth of Beautiful 50 during the peak period was actually not cost-effective as a whole.High estimated yields are expected from the market average.

But standing in the present moment, we think that if the business model of the growing company is tenable, or even more expensive at the moment, it is still worthwhile from a long-term perspective.

  We use the examples of US stocks GM and Tesla, Amazon and Wal-Mart to illustrate the important role of business models in estimating premiums.

US stocks in General Motors (market value 532.

$ 9.2 billion, average PE8.
93 times) and Wal-Mart (market value 2781.

USD 8.7 billion, average PE15.

68 times) etc. because of its outstanding operating income, net profit and rich cash flow, it was favored by earlier investors.

As technology-based enterprises are gradually being valued, more and more investors will turn small and sophisticated technology-based companies into the scope of good companies.

Investors are no longer just a way of estimation, but more to include business models in pricing models.

U.S. stocks such as Amazon (market value 8,910.

$ 3.2 billion, with an average PE of 341.

53 times, surpassing Wal-Mart), Tesla (current market value is 493.

7.8 billion, close to the leading GM, PE is still negative, and PB is 10.

03.(Times) during the operating period, they are in overlapping state all the year round, but they continue to create new highs continuously.

  In combination with the case of Hengrui Medicine mentioned in 2017 above, we will also find that domestic investors at the time ignored Hengrui Medicine as a domestic leading company in the development and production of innovative drugs, and its dynamic competitiveness in the field of new drugsAnd transformation capabilities.
Under the influence of a series of policies introduced in the pharmaceutical market in 17 years, innovative drugs have clearly benefited. Hengrui Medicine has obtained more than 30 clinical approvals in 2017 alone, 5 of which have been approved by the FDA.Double it.
Over time, when we review Hengrui Medicine, the game of business model and time cost is clear at a glance.

However, at a specific investment point in time, the judgment and correct choice between business model and time cost is still quite difficult and tangled.

  So how do you balance the issue between business models and time costs?

We believe that discount logic can be used and that the current reasonable price-earnings ratio should be based on future earnings expectations and investor expectations.
We have noticed that the profits of companies in the initial stage of listing and the estimated growth rate transition gradually and gradually become stable. This is mainly due to the return to rational estimates in the face of overcoming gradual and stable profit expectations. Therefore, the discounted free cash flow model is more practical in practice.It is difficult to achieve, but the thinking method of calculating reasonable present value through expected future discounting is worth replacing.

In order to balance the relationship between business models and time costs, we use discounting logic, where time costs can be reflected by investors’ expected returns.

Therefore, a reasonable P / E ratio should be based on future earnings expectations and investor expectations.
Specifically, we explain from the following formula: Among them, the compound growth rate of net profit for N years represents the expected profit level, and the expected P / E ratio after N years refers to the trend to stabilize the stable expected level, which can be approximately equal to the profit increase after N years.speed.

The investor’s expected return rate in N years represents the investment time cost during the investment period. It can be roughly estimated by using the reciprocal of PE after N years.
[1](Quoted from “Basics of Stock Market Fundamentals”) Taking the pharmaceutical and biological industry as an example, the current market surplus of the market industry as a whole is 33.

07x, the median historical P / E ratio of the industry is 37.

20 times, so we have the return 4 that investors expect.

00% and N years after the projected 25 earnings forecast.

According to the results, if the newly listed pharmaceutical and biological industry can achieve a net profit growth rate of 20% every year and is expected to stabilize after 3 years, the current reasonable price-earnings ratio should be about 38x.

By comparison, the current estimates for the pharmaceutical and biological industries are still low.

(The above bids will change due to parameter adjustments, which can be used by investors for reference.

) 4.Prospects for foreign layout of A-shares: mid-to-long-term with a record of 50 and the small and medium-sized board index. At present, regardless of the small and medium-sized ventures and growth industries, foreign investment in the layout of A-share growth is not high.

  ● In terms of sectors, as of April 1, Northbound funds held the stock market value and accounted for the entire market circulation market value2.

52%, of which Northbound Funds holds a stock market value of 8,739.

5.6 billion accounted for the main board circulation market value2.

62%, SME board 1,466.

6.9 billion accounted for 2.

36%, GEM 415.

8.1 billion accounted for 1.

65%.

  ● In terms of industry, as of April 1, the shareholding value of the mainland stock market has exceeded the overall market average2.

52% of the industries are household appliances (10.

28%), leisure services (8.
29%), food and beverage (7.

42%), building materials (5.

05%), electronic (3.

58%), medical biology (3.

36%), transportation (3.

04%) and cars (2.

73%) industry.

  Judging from Taiwan and South Korea’s experience, the growth of the growth sector is more obvious after the proportion of participation in Morocco has increased.

From the perspective of South Korea, if the KOSDAQ index of South Korea is used to reflect the trend of related emerging growth industries, the index’s growth will obviously exceed that of the broader market after the proportion of South Korean stocks increased.

Specifically, in September 1996, the percentage of MSCI in the Korean stock market segment increased from 20% to 50%. Since then, the trend of KOSDAQ has been significantly better than that of the broader market. The KQSDAQ index has increased by 11 in three months.

55% (by 1150.

At 6 o’clock rose to 1283.

5 o’clock).

After the percentage of South Korean stocks increased to 100% in September 1998, the growth trend of the KQSDAQ index lags slightly, increasing by 16 in four months.

05% (by 634.

8 points rose to 736.

7 o’clock).

In Taiwan, after the Taiwanese stocks first entered Morocco in September 1996, the Taiwan Electronics Industry Index (TWSEELEC Index) also produced a relatively large increase, from 92 in early September.

At 8 o’clock all the way up to 105 in early December.

89 points, an increase of 14.

06%, since then it has maintained a rapid growth trend.
After the MSCI ratio of Taiwanese stocks was increased from 65% to 100% in May 2005, the Taiwan electronics industry index rose by 15 within three months.

27% (from 234.

86 points rose to 270.

73 points).

  Therefore, our pre-judgment for the growth of foreign-invested A-shares is: in the short term, we will focus on 27 separate GEM stocks and mid-cap growth stocks separated by MSCI.

In the medium and long term, taking Taiwan and South Korea as examples, it is the preferred industry leader for cross-border deployment of growth industries. It is recommended to give priority to pharmaceutical, communications, computer, electronics and other industries.

  In the short term, focus on MSCI’s 27 GEM stocks and mid-cap growth stocks.

Twelve GEM large-cap stocks currently have only four or five months of additional allocation, with a separation ratio of 10%, which may lead to rapid allocation of exchanges in the short term.

The 168 mid-cap A shares, including 15 GEM stocks, need to be increased to 20% in November, and short-term recommendations are given priority attention.

  In the medium and long term, taking Taiwan and South Korea as examples, it is an advantage to grow industries across borders and choose industry leaders. It is recommended to pay attention to Chuang50 and small and medium-sized companies.

Take South Korea as an example. After the proportion of South Korean stocks increased to 100% in 1998, the international capital market is paying attention to the emerging areas represented by the electronics industry in South Korea.income.

Among them, Samsung Electronics rose 420 in one year.

88%, an increase of more than 180 in the same period.

18%.

Coincidentally, in the 1990s, as the four Asian dragons, Taiwan’s advantageous industrial structure was similar to that of South Korea.

Technology stocks TSMC (2330 TT Equity) and Hon Hai Precision (2317 TT Equity) all blocked the rise in the disk in the year after they entered the country. TSMC rose 311 in one year.

93%, Hon Hai Precision rose 477 within a year.

45%, while Taiwan’s broader market rose only 41.

92%.
Not sharp, the layout of foreign investment is the development trend of emerging industries in the country or region at that time, and the industry leader is preferred.

Therefore, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, we recommend giving priority attention to the pharmaceutical, communications, computer, electronics and other industries, and preferred Chuang50 and small and medium-sized board companies.

  Finally, what I want to report to investors is that in a series of foreign research fields, we have published three in-depth special reports in the recent period of time, the first of which is “What did Rich Buy?

-Written at the time when the A-shares were announced to be “rich”, a comprehensive description of the current status and interests of foreign exchange represented by QFII and China Stock Connect has been found. Consumption and finance are the strongholds of foreign holdings;The second chapter, “Foreign inflows have changed, how to interpret?

“”, We proposed: “When foreign substitution has just begun, it does not mean that the market is about to end, and sometimes the market will continue to change briefly, during which the index will reach a new high.

And the third article, “The timing of foreign stocks in A-shares-Studies on foreign trading strategies and characteristics”, focusing on foreign trading signals and characteristics, that the trend of internationalization of A-shares is irreversible, but in the shortLook, there is a change in the direction of foreign capital, and the phased injection and transformation will become more continuous.

All three reports have received widespread attention from investors, and today’s fourth article, “Estimation of Aesthetics for Foreign Growth Stocks-Also Answers How to Think of” Nice, but Expensive “?

“, The article is more about exploring the perception and aesthetics of the growing company from the perspective of estimation. I hope that with the increasingly prominent exchange of A-share pricing power, domestic investors can know each other in the growth field, grasp the possibilities and gain a lot.

Beware of eleven computer diseases that can be deadly

Beware of eleven computer diseases that can be deadly

While enjoying the high speed and convenience brought by computers, white-collar workers also frequently encountered the leakage of “computer diseases”: cervical spondylosis, dry eye disease, mouse hands, carrot legs.

We are gradually approaching us and hurt us.

It can be seen that it is imminent to understand “computer disease” and introduce “computer disease”.

Now see if you have committed these “computer symptoms.”

  Computer Symptoms (1): Causes of Screen Face Diseases: No matter big things or small things, all rely on computer records, expressionless, dull complexion.

  Mitigation methods: 1.

Do not place sundries around the computer, so as not to attract dust to the skin; 2.

Rub some moisturizer before using the computer; 3.

Clean the keyboard frequently.

  A recent study found that yogurt also has the effect of reducing radiation damage and inhibiting the decline of human lymphocytes after radiation.

Drink yogurt after lunch to reduce computer radiation damage. How the “computer family” has healthy and beautiful skin: In order for the computer family to have healthy and beautiful skin, it must be adequately protected and conditioned according to the causes of skin problems.

  Computer Symptoms (2): Cause of Radish Leg: Often sitting all day can swell your legs and vascular lesions on your calves, which may be a precursor to varicose veins.

  Mitigation methods: 1.

Once acidity is found in the legs, bloating should be treated promptly; 2.

Stand up every 10 hours for 10 simple squat exercises to improve venous return in the lower limbs.

  Computer Symptoms (III): Causes of Mouse Hand Causes: Extended overtime work for several consecutive years, pain in the index or middle finger, numbness, slow and weak muscle response in the thumb, triggering “wrist joint syndrome”.

  Mitigation methods: 1.

Avoid continuous fixed upper limbs, mechanical and alternative activities; 2.

When using the mouse, do not suspend your arms to reduce the pressure on your wrist; 3.

Do not hit the keyboard and mouse buttons too hard.

  Computer Symptoms (4): Causes of Cervical Spondylosis: If you use the computer to stand high and cover, lower your head, you will feel back pain and numb shoulders after working for 1 hour.

  Mitigation methods: 1.

Keep the cervical spine warm in the air-conditioned room; 2.

The pillows are slightly lower, and the computer desk should not exceed 70 cm; 3.

Adhere to cervical spine exercises twice a day.

  Computer Symptoms (5): Causes of Dry Eye Disease: Stare at the computer intently within 8 hours, go home and continue to fight in “online games”, eyes are sore and dry, and eventually cause dry eye disease.

  Mitigation method: 1. It should be more than 70 centimeters away from the monitor. 2. Adjust the screen brightness to a proper level. 3. When working, the brightness of the room should be the same as the screen brightness.

  Computer Symptoms (6): Electromagnetic Radiation Hazard Cause: The display is too hot, and there will be quite a lot of electromagnetic radiation during work. It causes the ionization of the air, constantly generates positive ions (positive ions), and continuously interacts with the air.The neutralization of the negative ions causes the content of negative ions to be almost zero. It has been in an environment with too many positive ions for a long time, which causes insomnia, decreased immunity, and endocrine disorders in women.

  Mitigation methods: 1. Carefully clean the office environment; 2. Do not point the back of your monitor to the back of your colleague or the side of your body; 3, drink green tea often; wash your face frequently; 4, place a pot under the computer deskPlants or water can absorb the electromagnetic waves emitted by the computer; 5, try using an LCD monitor.

  Computer Symptoms (7): Causes of skin allergies: An electrostatic field will form around the display when it is turned on. It will almost absorb the dust suspended in the air in the entire room into its own field, which will cause skin and skin irritation.Allergies and rashes appear.

  Mitigation methods: 1. Don’t place piles of paper and documents around the computer; 2, wipe the surface of the computer desk with a damp cloth dipped in antistatic agent; 3, often open the window for ventilation; 4, place a pot of cactus on the computer table, Because the needles of the cactus can absorb dust; 5, often clean the keyboard, wash hands before eating and use the keyboard before use, cover the keyboard with a cloth when not in use.

  Computer sickness (8): Brain function decline Cause: The personal computer is expanding, and people are being more and more damaged by memory loss. As a result, they rely too much on computers, which weakens their brain functions.
  Relief methods: 1. Ensure adequate sleep; meditation practice.

  2. It is best to have 20-30 minutes every day to meditate on the easy and beautiful things in life, listen to the rhythm of your breathing, and relax your emotions as much as possible; 3, learn to use Wubi input method, do not always use intelligent pinyin associative input method4, change the unhealthy diet structure, eat more brain food.

  Computer Symptoms (9): Causes of Computer Depression: Long-term computer operations have formed a “none or another” mindset. They are not used to reaching compromises and understandings with people, losing self-confidence, suffering fatigue, and making it difficult to start work.

  Mitigation methods: 1. Do a good job of self-psychological adjustment and correct thinking in a timely manner; 2. Actively deal with interpersonal relationships, especially relationships with colleagues.

  Computer Symptoms (10): Causes of Computer Mania: Due to over-reliance on computers, when a computer fails, it will cause nervousness, emotional irritability, restlessness, and even serious use of force on the computer, such as by hitting hardThe keyboard, mouse, scolding the computer, smashing the computer and other ways to vent anger, and some of the dissatisfaction vented on family members or colleagues.

  Mitigation methods: 1. Once a computer malfunction occurs, immediately find a professional to repair it. Avoid sitting alone at the computer desk, restore sight and attention as soon as possible, relax; 2, save working documents at any time, use mobile hard disks to back up data. OnceIf there is a problem with the computer, you will not suffer too much loss, and your emotions will not suddenly get out of control. , 3. Don’t sit in front of the computer externally, walk away for a cup of tea, coffee or activities at intervals.  Computer Symptoms (11): Causes of Central Nervous Disorders: 70% incidence. Continuously operating a computer in a closed environment. Microwaves emitted by the computer cause central nervous disorders. Symptoms after operating the computer for many days in a row: headacheDizziness, insomnia, anorexia, nausea, and low mood, sluggish thinking, forgetfulness, easy to be irritated, often tired, etc.

  Mitigation methods: 1. Make sure that there is sufficient lighting and ventilation near the computer desk. 2. Walk away and rest for 10 minutes every hour when you work in front of the computer. Drink plenty of water during the computer operation.

Results of formula milk purchase survey

Results of formula milk purchase survey

Formula milk is indispensable for babies in the process of adding complementary foods. Mothers will naturally care about the quality of milk powder on the market and want to know: how to distinguish the quality of milk powder with so many milk powders on the market today.Safe and healthy formula?

      1. Do you give your baby formulas from the brand?

     2. What is your basis for buying brand formula?

     According to a one-week survey conducted by the editorial department of the Chinese parent-child website, Sina.com, Cradle.com, Yaya.com and other websites, the survey results are as follows: Milk powder brand selection ratio Abbott 21.

3% Dumex 17.

6 Mead Johnsons 13.

5% beauty element 9.

6% Wyeth 9.

6% Nestle 2.

6 %% other 25.

8 %% of the mothers have different views on the basis for choosing formula: Want Want Moms: mainly look at advertising, and then look at what the surrounding moms eat for the baby, I will buy what the baby.

     Experts remind: Be careful and exaggerate the false publicity. From the perspective of infant nutritional needs, eating formula can get a variety of nutrients similar to breast milk.

Generally, formula milk products that have been tested and researched in large medical centers abroad or at home can be used safely.

Don’t believe in the propaganda of some manufacturers or salespersons one-sidedly. You must have scientifically verified relevant written materials, such as the content of documents and periodicals, not news advertisements.

For some ingredients that claim to have special clinical effects, see whether they are marked in the ingredients or only published in the advertising list, which can also be used as one of the simple methods to determine whether there is exaggerated false advertising.

     Aska: What is expensive?

You can’t be greedy for a small price.

     Experts remind: Expensive is not necessarily the best joint venture or imported milk powder may be more expensive, but expensive products are not necessarily good, and the nutrients it contains are not necessarily increased through price increases.

For example, comparing the prices and nutrients of 100 grams of different milk powders, domestic milk powder may provide the same nutrients, but the price is cheaper and more affordable.

Therefore, the first thing to pay attention to is product safety and quality.

  Formula milk is indispensable for babies in the process of adding complementary foods. Mothers will naturally care about the quality of milk powder on the market and want to know: how to distinguish the quality of milk powder with so many milk powders on the market today.Safe and healthy formula?

Which milk powder is more suitable for your baby?

Are there any precautions when feeding milk?

     Tips for purchasing formula milk When you choose to buy bagged or canned milk powder, you must ensure that the packaging is clean. When purchasing mixed formula, you must carefully read the instructions on the container. Pay attention to the nutrition fortification on the container label.

  The nutrition label includes how big an ingredient is and how many nutrients it can provide to achieve the percentage needed by a certain age group in a day.

Domestic milk powder also has similar nutrition label information, for example, how much protein is provided per 100 grams, and whether DHA is added, and see if this product can provide the nutrients your baby needs.

     Check the date stored on the jar lid or label to ensure that the milk powder is not stored for too long. Store the opened milk powder in a cool and dry room. Do not store it in refrigerators, warehouses or buildings. These places are relatively short.Will cause aging of the packaging can or affect the quality of milk powder.

     Observe the appearance, properties, dryness and wetness of the milk powder, whether there are caking, impurities, etc., but also pay attention to the solubility of the milk powder and whether it is sticky to the bottle.

     Try to buy formula milk powder with refined vegetable oil formula. The baby can’t get angry, the stools are soft, calcium and a small amount are well absorbed, which helps bone development and energy absorption and utilization.

     Choose iron-fortified infant formula.

  If your baby is fed artificially or needs iron supplementation based on breast milk replacement, iron-fortified formula is the best choice.

This formula has the words “Iron-containing” or “Iron-fortified” on the label of the formula.

Iron is the most important nutrient for your baby’s first year of life, and infant formula fortified with iron is the best way to ensure the introduction of the right amount of iron.

     Tinker Bell: Don’t buy cans that have squeezing deformation, bulging at the bottom, leaking or broken cans.

Packed milk powder may not be safe.

Tomato summer alternative: tomato ice cream

Tomato summer alternative: tomato ice cream

Tomatoes are rich in nutrients, and eating more is good.

Traditionally, the practice of tomatoes is mainly cold, soup, scrambled eggs.

Here, I will introduce a few summer alternatives for tomatoes. While a large number of summer tomatoes are on the market, it does not prevent you from trying to make more tricks.

  Tomato ice drink ingredients: 500 grams of tomatoes, 100 grams of sugar.

  Production method: ① Select fresh and ripe tomatoes, cut into small pieces after washing, mix with white sugar, marinate for two hours, wait for the marinated juice to set aside; ② Put it in an ice tray and freeze it into ice cubes in the refrigerator.

  Features: bright red color, sweet and sour, appetizing and promoting appetite.

  Ingredients for tomato ice cream: 100 grams of tomato, 100 grams of milk, 30 grams of cream, 70 grams of water, two eggs, 50 grams of sugar, and flavor.

  Production method: ① Wash and peel the tomatoes, cut into pieces, add water and boil them into sauce for later use, and boil the milk for later use.

② Add the sugar and eggs to the slightly cool tomato juice, stir while adding, then add milk, stir well and set aside.

③ Heat the mixture, filter, cool, add cream, flavor, and mix well.

④ Frozen the above mixed liquid in the refrigerator, and stir it often, and it can be eaten after freezing.

  Features: Sweet and sour, delicious tomato flavor, not greasy to eat.

  Ingredients for tomato porridge: 250 grams of tomatoes, 200 grams of previous rice (or glutinous rice), 150 grams of sugar, and 1,000 grams of water.

  Production method: ① Wash the tomatoes first, peel off the skin, and cut into small cubes.

② Add rice to the water to cook porridge.

③ Add sugar and tomato to rice porridge, continue to boil for a while, and pour out to cool.

④ Store the porridge in the refrigerator and use it for food.

  Features: Sweet and sour, delicious, has the effect of refreshing and quenching thirst, strengthening the stomach and digesting food.